PP: did you see the story about the rumoured agreement between Tbilisi and Sokhumi?
SB1: no!
tell me
PP: it was in the kommersant yesterday or today supposedly the deal is a non-use of force agreement and paves the way for the return of georgian refugees in exchange for withdrawal from kodori gorge
SB1: really? but is that really feasible - i mean, would they return? i know there was a un resolution about it
PP: no idea really
i doubt it seriously
SB1: ok
and what’s next?
and why now?
PP: i mean, it could be a last minute election ploy right?
SB1: i seriously don’t know whether this should be taken at face value
PP: but some of the sources quoted in the story are from the Abkhazian side
SB1: yeah, but what does bagapsh stand to gain from it?
PP: the non-use of force is a pretty big thing for them i think
SB1: for bagapsh?
PP: but i agree with you that we should be pretty pessemistic here
SB1: why does he care - he has the russians in
out of all people, he shouldnt worry too much
especially after moscow’s last steps
i am skeptical
but still it’s very interesting
i will write about it on my blog
PP: yeah, check out the entire story
it’s pretty lengthy and detailed
SB1: yeah, i will for sure
PP: it’s at the top of today’s Digesst
it kind of makes sense though that recent events may have pushed this level of dialogue
SB1: in what sense?
PP: getting so close to conflict and also the recent visit of Bryza to Sokhumi
SB1: i dunno who bryza is
PP: and immediately followed by the Georgian Minister for conflicts etc.
he’s the dep sec of state for the region
SB1: ok
PP: and there was talk of him setting up a meeting with Rice and Bagepsh sometime this year
SB1: rice?
really?
PP: well, he’s by far the highest ranking US diplomat to visit Abkhazia
both him and Taft went
SB1: wow
very interesting actually
i am pissed, had no time to follow what’s going on there
PP: yeah, it was really unprecedented
i mean, i think the US also realized they aren’t gonna be able to push Georgia’s NATO bid through without some resolution/progress on the Abkhazia issue
SB1: hmmm…
realistically speaking though, what kind of resolution do you expect?
SB1: i don’t see russia signing on to an agreement whereby georgia enteres nato with abkhazia
i think the best deal for georgia is to join nato and forget about abkhazia
SB1: no, me either
but this kind of deal might make georgia’s entry into NATO more palatable for the Europeans who resisted it in a few years time
SB1: hmmm, yeah
i guess
PP: the article also mentioned potentially having Russia withdraw heavy armaments and paratroopers from near the border as part of the exchange for withdrawing Georgian military from Kodori
SB1: but why would russia be backing down now?
it makes little sense unless the americans are heavily involved
which seems to be the case?
what do you think?
PP: yeah, it’s really hard to read everything here but it definitely seems like the americans have been pushing hard here on all sides
i think it could be spun in a way that it doesn’t have to look like they’re just backing down
i mean, this would be securing an agreement on the non-use of force for Abkhazia
which the Abkhazians could have never achieved on their own
SB1: i see
but what is the value of such an agreement
for abkhazians?
do you seriously think that misha would risk a military incursion into abkhazia, with the kind of russian presence there
and with russia basically doing everything but formally annexing abkhazia
PP: i guess it allows them to feel more independent and not rely entirely on Russian military support all the time
there was serious talk that some high members of the gov’t here wanted misha to initiate something before the elections to rally support
SB1 what you are saying it’s interesting
i guess my mistake is discarding the relevance of abkhazian authorities as a potential player in its own right
which is probably due to the fact that i am on the other side of the sea
it’s tough to see the details from far away
PP: there’s a good chance this could all be bullshit or that it could fall apart in an instant
but i think either way that the visit by Bryza and Taft is hugely significant
SB1: yeah
PP: and i don’t think they would have visited without a specific purpose and end goal in mind
SB1: that’s for sure!
PP: and they were clearly able to get both sides talking again as the Georgian minister made the unnanounced trip immediately following the americans
SB1: hmmm
no, seriously, this is interesting