Dateline: BUCHAREST

Moskva, Rossyia: Zveri - Prosto Takaya Silnaya Liubov

Hollywood, CA: Metro Station - Shake it

SB1: tu esti la partid, nu?
TR: da
TR: acasa, adica
TR: aici e casa mea
TR: si sufletul meu
TR: gradina mea cu flori
SB1: mai zi
TR: speranta mea
TR: nazuinta
TR: speranta de a fi
TR: ratiunea de a fi
TR: totul
SB1: pun pe blog asta

David Brunnstrom writes in today’s Guardian of the EU - Russia negotiations regarding a new all-encompassing pact wit the Big Eastern Neighbor. The deal would cover energy, trade, and politics. This pact is an opportunity for the EU to pursue a more assertive stance for Russia, and it is high time the 27 did that.

As Brunnstrom points out, it will be tough to get an agreement on the terms of the Treaty at the EU level - it may take years, if it ever happens. Yet the EU Member States should be aware, regardless of their reliance on Russian natural gas, that the only way to deal with Moscow now is by playing [sensible] hard ball. Of course, say, Germany, might have problems with that argument, yet its significance remains paramount over the long run.

Even the EU states that are highly dependent on Russian resources must have realized by now that, with oil prices reaching a whopping 130 USD/barrel, current consumption patterns are not sustainable. Yes, Russia has natural gas, but, over the long run, neither oil nor natural gas is the answer. The answer, in my humble opinion, lies in diversifying energy suppliers and shifting increasingly toward green forms of energy.

This is where a common approach toward Russia comes in handy. By taking a tougher line in its negotiations toward Moscow, Europe will surely incur some costs over the short term - possibly in the form of higher energy prices, possibly in yet oher forms. But to minimize these costs, and to stand a change of getting a better deal from the Russians, the EU must speak with one voice. If we consider the EU as a singular actor with a common interest, which i think should be the case, cooperating in their relationship with Russia would lead to a pareto-optimal result, maximizing the overall benefit for all Member States. It would allow the Union to get a better deal than any of the Member States alone could ever obtain.

And then there’s the politics. The message that needs to be driven home to Putin [or Medvedev, for that matter] is that it is not ok to infringe on human rights and reconstitute a neo-Tsarist crony regime controlled by the secret services. Russia should probably try harder to look like a democracy. And the EU should give it an incentive to do just that.

A third and final reason why the EU should act with one voice in its dealing with Mosow is because of the countries in Russia’s near-abroad. These states should retain a realistic prospect of one day joining the EU. And the EU should thus retain a powerful direct leverage on these countries’ reform path [as it ultimately did, even with the worst reformers, i.e. Romania and Bulgaria]. For an example of what I have in mind, see the initiative by Poland and Sweden, among others, for an Eastern Partnership.

Am aflat ce se ascunde in spatele diabolicului sondaj clocit de diabolicul S.O. Vantu si Insomar! Luati si voi informatii proaspete si incendiare de la ziarul Tricolorul. Insa, am si eu o mare rugaminte la Dvs., daca se poate si nu va deranjeaza. Nu mai spuneti la nimeni, da???

[Pentru cei care nu sunt pasionati de politica - si, deci, nu sunt romani -, dar sunt pasionati de femei, va recomand o poza cu o domnisoara draguta, o buna romanca si crestina, pe partea din dreapta a paginii aceluiasi ziar. Eu zic ca spune multe despre noi daca pana si ziarele de extrema dreapta au poze cu gagici in costume de baie pe ele. O tempora, o mores...]

Alex from the Messenger [Tbilisi's English language daily] has been liveblogging throughout election day in Georgia. FYI, I am talking about Parliamentary elections, contested by 9 parties and 3 electoral blocks.

The big issue at stake here is actually having the elections generally regarded as free and fair by the international community. That would be a big plus in terms of strengthening Georgia’s democratic credentials and helping it to secure the NATO Membership Action Plan in December.

The small issue here is whether Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) is able to hold on to a Parliamentary majority. The opposition is made up of largely Pro-Western parties, who are quite vocal against Saakashvili’s strong style of leadership [authoritarian might be another way to put it].

Anyway, the quick facts here [too tired to give you any fine print now]:
_ turnout: 55%
_ exit poll: UNM at 63%
_ opposition cry foul.

I will keep you updated with any major developments. In case I forget or I don’t have time, just check the Messenger’s blog.

Check out this brand new single by Petrica Americanu. A quintessentially hedonistic discourse, infused with Balkan traditions and symbolic depictions of various aspirational objects [i.e. the Blonde Woman, the Designer Sunglasses, the Harley Davidson motorcycle].

By the way… first time, Romania?

PP: did you see the story about the rumoured agreement between Tbilisi and Sokhumi?
SB1: no!
tell me
PP: it was in the kommersant yesterday or today supposedly the deal is a non-use of force agreement and paves the way for the return of georgian refugees in exchange for withdrawal from kodori gorge
SB1: really? but is that really feasible - i mean, would they return? i know there was a un resolution about it
PP: no idea really
i doubt it seriously
SB1: ok
and what’s next?
and why now? Continue Reading »

Azi chiar m-am enervat destul de mult incat sa scriu in romana pe blog [cu care ocazie voi afla si raspunsul la comment-ul lui calamaru]. Ma trezesc dupa prima noapte dormita semi-decent de o saptamana incoace, ma intind si rup tzipla prestigioasei reviste Foreign Policy - editia romana. Sunt relaxat, binedispus, benevolent. Douazeci de minute mai tarziu, ziua mea era deja compromisa. Continue Reading »

For those who hoped that the inauguration of the new President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, will bring about a liberal thaw, I have bad news: according to The Economist, Medved, in Russian, means bear. Which is exactly how Russia has been acting in the past few weeks. As anticipated, a string of events, such as Kosovo’s independence, Georgia and Ukraine’s bid to join NATO, coupled with the power transition at the Kremlin, all conspired to boost the aggressiveness of Russia’s foreign policies.

Take, for instance the 9 May military parade in Moscow, the first one of its sort since the fall of the Soviet Union, timed to show the West that Russia is still serious about regaining its erstwhile power, and that just because it appointed [sic!] a supposedly liberal President, it isn’t about to go soft where it matters most.

In other words, the bear is still alive and kicking. Kicking hard, that is, especially in the region known as ‘Russia’s soft under belly’, i.e., the South Caucasus. Russia has recently taken serios steps toward recognizing Georgia’s breakaway region of Abkhazia, shot down several Georgian drones [albeit never recognizing it] and, most worryingly, boosted its troop numbers in the Abkhaz region. Continue Reading »