As the conflict in Ossetia is nearing 48 hours since its outbreak, there are few signs indicating that the fighting may subside. On the contrary, every hour news agencies churn out new reports that talk about fresh escalation.

  • This morning, Russian troops bombed several targets inside Georgia including. The town of Gori, the Black Sea port of Poti, a military base at the outskirts of Tbilisi, as well as major infrastructure in Georgia were hit by Russian airborne and land-based artillery fire. Russia is further turning the screw by deploying the Black Sea fleet to positions just outside the Abkhazian coast.
  • The situation in Ossetia is uncertain. Depending on their source, reports will say that Russia [or Georgia] are in control of Tskhinvali, that Ossetian refugees are flowing north toward Vladikavkaz, that Georgians are generating a massive humanitarian crisis etc. What appears to be certain is that there is an information war paralleling the war on the ground. Who wins the information war may well be the same party that turns out as a winner from the actual conflict.
  • Statements and positions. Saakashvili spoke again today, called on the international community and dennounced Russia’s aggression. Bush also came out with a statement, calling for an immediate ceasefire, the usual blah blah, this time in slightly stronger words. Poland asked for the EU to convoke an extraordinary summit to deal with the conflict, and stated [jointly with the Baltics] that Russia has now ‘crossed the line’ and must be openly opposed by the EU. Germany’s FM Steinmeier warns against the danger of regional spillover of the Ossetia conflict. OSCE Chairman Stubb [also Finnish FM] said expecations of a quick solutions should be kept low. ‘On a scale of one to 10, we are at about two’, he was quoted as saying.
  • Danger of spillover. This afternoon, news channels were already reporting the emergence of a second front for Georgia, triggered by attacks from Abkhaz forces on border regions in Georgia. There is real danger for the trend to continue, and for Abkhazia turns ‘hot’.

Quick roundup: the situation in Georgia looks truly desperate. Tbilisi will face a dire catastrophe if the international community does not take clear actions toward stopping the hostilities. As I am writing this, EU, US and OSCE envoys are making their way to Georgia, to mediate a solution to the hostilities.