Dateline: BUCHAREST

Let’s have a quick look at international reactions to the conflict in Georgia. What we are interested in is how the West responded to Russia’s aggression in Georgia. As I am writing this, the conflict is still raging, so it is hard to extract myself from the events and provide a clear analysis. What follows is a short round-up of reactions, followed by brief comments:

- Eastern Europe and the Baltic states reacted strongly, condemning Russia’s aggression and pointing the finger at Moscow. Lithuania sent their FM, to Georgia Estonia is sending cyber attack specialists to help Georgia, entering the conflict in an interesting way [see article ]. In a courageous move, Ukraine warned that it would not allow Russian warships from returning to their base in Sevastopol.

- The US has gradually stepped up its rhetoric as the conflict escalated, warning Russia that its moves were disporportionate and threatening of a serious and long lasting cooldown of relations with Moscow. President Bush has come out strong to defend Georgia, but only in rhetoric.

- France, through the voice of President Nicolas Sarkozy, has shown true leadership inside the EU. Sarkozy reportedly had a tough exchange of words with Putin in Beijing, telling the Russian PM to retreat from Georgia. Paris sent in their FM into Georgia to mediate a peace agreement, which asked for Russian troops to retreat from S. Ossetia. As expected, the proposal was rejected by Russia. [see news ]

A few remarks. First, Eastern Europeans showed true courage and stood behind Georgia. A notable exception was Romania [the second largest country in the region, NATO and EU member, with significant military capabilities], who issued a bland statement more than 48 hours after the conflict outbreak.

Second, the US rhetoric is in line with its foreign policy line, but alas it cannot be matched by action. The State Department has made clear that the US will not intervene militarily in Georgia. This is due to its strong interests in Iran - the US has to make sure that Russia does not deliver S 300 missiles to Tehran, and cannot afford to make Moscow too upset. American interests in Iran supersede those in Georgia, and are compounded by worries of Russia’s ability to thwart US policies in other hot areas, most notably Afghanistan and Syria.

Third, and most importantly, France acted as a true European leader, taking a strong stance toward Russia. Witness to this is the recent announcement that President Sarkozy will visit Tbilisi tomorrow. From the point of view of EU diplomacy, it was lucky that the conflict erupted during the presidency of a large country like France.

More analysis will follow as the conflict unfolds.

In the continuing and escalating war of words between the United States and Russia at the highest levels of Government the Russian Prime Minister Putin has accused the United States of actively trying to impede their ongoing military operations in Georgia. This came after President Bush harshly condemned Russia for their military operations in Georgia.

“I regret that some of our partners are not helping us but in fact are trying to impede us. I am referring to the US transfer, aboard its military transport planes and directly into the conflict zone, of the Georgian military contingent from Iraq,” Putin was quoted by AFP as saying on Monday.

Estonia has now entered into the Russian-Georgian conflict in a unique way by sending cyber defense experts to help protect against Russian hackers. Estonia is highly experienced in this regard as they themselves faced a barrage of attacks by Russian hackers earlier this year.

“Estonia will send to Georgia two specialists in information security from the Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) Estonia, Foreign Ministry representatives told the Baltic News Service.”

The interesting aspect of this development that for Russia to respond to this development would directly imply that they are directly behind and responsible for the ongoing cyber attacks against official and unnoficial Georgian websites. Depending on if or how Russia responds to this news could mean that Estonia has also entered into the fray.

Reports are quickly coming in that Russian troops have advanced more than 40km inside Georgia to the town of Senaki. The town is southeast of the border town of Zugdidi, which Russian troops also occupy now, and is important militarily as it is host to the second NATO standard base for the Georgian military. The second infantry of the Georgian army is stationed in Senaki. The first NATO standard base is in the town of Gori near the conflict in South Ossetia. It seems Russia wants to completely cripple the Georgian military before talking about ceasing the fighting. More details soon…

In an unprecedented show of support for a Western leader, President Nicolas Sarkozy will pay a visit to Georgia. He is expected in Tbilisi on August 12.

The announcement was made a few minutes ago by President Mikheil Saakashvili

According to preliminary sources Russia has already rejected the draft ceasefire  proposal that was signed by President Saakashvili. Russia has accused Georgia of continuing to use military force against its forces and has therefore rejected the pretext for any ceasefire at this point in time. Click here for more details on the ongoing efforts by the the EU delegation headed by French FM Kouchner to secure a ceasefire and end the hostilities.

According to unconfirmed Georgian sources, Russian troops are now in control of the West Georgian town of Zugdidi, close to the Abkhazian border. Will be back with updates on this.

1750 [Tbilisi time]: Civil.ge confirms that Russian troops are now in control of Zugdidi! A representative of the Georgian Interior Ministry was quoted as saying:

The so called Russian peacekeeping forces [stationed in the conflict zone], as well as Russia’s regular army units entered into Zugdidi and they now control the local police headquarters.

[Georgian woman in Gori. Source: AP]

This morning I was woken up by a text message from Tbilisi: “Last night Tbilisi bombed! Aeroport and some places!” The information was later confirmed by other people in Tbilisi, who reported waking up to massive explosions, at 4:30.

During the past few hours, Russia has seemed to ease the pressure on Georgia - for now at a declaratory level. Medvedev declared to Interfax that military operations in Georgia are almost complete. Russian statements seem to indicate that Moscow is willing to end major operations following the securing of the South Ossetian territory. Yet, bombing of Georgian targets has continued. President Saakashvili had to interrupt an interview to flee to a bomb shelter, among aerial raids on Tbilisi.

The situation in Ossetia is still chaotic. Reports seem to indicate that, after heavy fighting last night, Georgian troops have been able to push back Russian forces that were closing in on Gori. Earlier today, an Ossetian source said Georgians had resumed offensive inside South Ossetia. If confirmed, this could mean that Russians have been forced to retreat north of the Ossetian boundary and are being pursued by Georgian forces.

Here is a video about Russian bombings on Tbilisi.

According to Romanian TV channel Realitatea, Saakashvili and French FM Bernard Kouchner had to be evacuated from Gori amid heavy Russian artillery fire. Watch the video here.

[Text and photo from Stratfor]

5:31 a.m.: Georgia’s Interior Ministry denies a report it made earlier in which it said that Russian planes had bombed a military base and radar installation near Tbilisi.
• 4:20 a.m.: Russian planes bomb the Kojori military base near Tbilisi and a radar installation, Reuters reports, citing comments from Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili.

3 a.m.

• 2:51 a.m.: Two groups of Georgian raiders have been captured in South Ossetia, Interfax reports.
• 2:25 a.m.: Gunfire has ceased in Tskhinvali, the capital of the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia, and peacekeepers said Georgian forces failed to open a “humanitarian corridor,” Interfax reports.
• 2:07 a.m.: The Russian navy confirms that it sank a Georgian boat, according to Interfax.