Dateline: BUCHAREST

After Bush’s strong statement last night, NATO has come out today strong in support of Georgia. The first sign was the cancellation of the NATO-Russia Council meeting, which was initially scheduled at Russia’s request. NATO offered as an excuse the fact that more preparations are needed. However, the US Ambassador to NATO took a clearer line, justifying the cancellation by saying that “there cannot be business as usual with Russia” when Moscow is involved in an open conflict with a NATO-partner state.

Today, Jaap de Hoop Schaeffer came out with a statement saying that NATO is still supporting Georgia’s membership perspective, re-confirming NATO’s statement from the Bucharest Summit. He also declared that putting an end to Russia’s offensive is “important, but not sufficient.”

Saakashvili announced today Georgia’s withdrawal from the Commonwealth of Independent States, in protest of Russia’s aggression. The Georgian President has called the Russian troops “occupational forces.”

“We have decided to quit CIS and to say farewell to the Soviet Union. We call on Ukraine and other members to also quit the CIS ruled by Russia.”

“We have also decided to renounce the Russian peacekeepers’ mandate and to declare Abkhazia and South Ossetia occupied territories of Georgia.”

Saakashvili’s decision is significant as Russian troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia had been deployed there under a CIS peace-keeping mandate. Georgia’s announcement may leave the formal legitimacy of the peace-keeping mission under question. During the ensuing negotiations, a new framework for the peace-keeping troops will probably have to be negotiated.

Maraton de dat mana pentru pace

Organizatiile societatii civile romanesti te cheama miercuri, 13 august 2008, de la orele 18.45 la un maraton de dat mana. Ne vom intalni in doua grupuri – unul pe Sos. P. Kiseleff in fata Muzeului Taranului Roman si altul la Arcul de Triumf - si vom merge unii spre ceilalti pana la Ambasada Rusiei la Bucuresti (sos. P. Kiseleff nr. 6). Acolo ne vom da mana unii cu altii si vom aprinde lumanari in memoria victimelor din Georgia cerand incetarea confruntarilor armate din aceasta tara.

Vino impreuna cu prietenii tai pentru a arata lumii cum se mediaza conflictele si a-i indemna pe actorii internationali sa faca la fel! Alatura-te acestui gest de solidaritate pentru victimele conflictului din Georgia, vino sa dai mana cu un om oarecare!

Reguli:

La maratonul de dat mana se va vorbi doar in soapta. La acest eveniment se vor auzi si cele mai firave voci, nu doar opiniile celor mai puternici dintre noi.
Participantii la maraton nu isi pot aduce cu ei decat alte instrumente folositoare in timpul negocierii: pixuri si coli de scris, bunavointa si deschidere catre a asculta si opinia celorlalti, toleranta si respect fata de partenerii de dat mana.

Mai multe info la http://asociatiaverzii.blogspot.com/ sau http://www.apd.ro

Dati mai departe!

[text: Stratfor; photo: AFP]

• 11:17 a.m.: Abkhazia says the Georgian troops in the Kodori Gorge are surrounded, Interfax reports.
• 10:33 a.m.: The Georgian leadership has no information indicating that Russian troops will try to take Tbilisi, Interfax reports.
• 10:25 a.m.: The Georgian Defense Ministry has said that Russian troops are approaching Tbilisi, Interfax reports.
• 10:19 a.m.: All employees of the Ukrainian Embassy in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi are being evacuated, Interfax reports.
• 10:10 a.m.: Georgian military commanders do not have a clear picture of what is going on in the current conflict because Russia destroyed Georgia’s radars and military communication facilities, RIA Novosti reports. Representatives of the Georgian government have said the country’s media are issuing contradictory reports, especially on Russian troop movements.
• 10:10 a.m.: Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili told the Council of National Security that Georgian tanks are headed to the city of Gori, RIA Novosti reports.
• 9:46 a.m.: Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili is awaiting the arrival of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Polish President Lech Kaczynski, Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Estonian President Hendrik Ilves, Interfax reports. In the morning of Aug. 12, before their arrival, Saakashvili will hold an emergency meeting of parliament. The meeting will be at an undisclosed location but will be partially televised for the nation to see.

9 a.m.

• 8:03 a.m.: Interfax reports that South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity warned the European Union and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe that Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili is trying to use them to “continue his aggressive policy.”
• 6:24 a.m.: South Ossetia’s State Committee of Information and Press reports that though some minor shelling is coming from outside of South Ossetia, the country is considered “clean” of Georgians, South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity said.
• 6 a.m.: The Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia launches a military operation to force Georgian troops out of the Kodori Gorge, according to Interfax.

6 a.m.

• 5:53 a.m.: The government of the secessionist Georgian region of Abkhazia plans to push Georgian forces from the Kodori Gorge in a few days, Interfax reports.

3 a.m.

• 1:37 a.m. U.S. President George W. Bush, calling Russia’s action against Georgia unacceptable and an invasion of a sovereign state, says that “there is evidence that Russian forces may soon begin bombing the civilian airport in the capital city” of Tbilisi, Reuters reports. Bush says that if Russia does bomb Tbilisi’s airport, it would “represent a dramatic and brutal escalation of the conflict in Georgia.”
• 1:24 a.m. U.S. President George W. Bush, in a live television broadcast, says that it is time for Russia to end the crisis in Georgia.
• 1:06 a.m.: Georgia National Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaya said Aug. 12 in a briefing that there is no fighting currently taking place on Georgian Territory, Interfax reported.
• 12: 52 a.m.: Russian peacekeeping units have not taken the Georgian port city of Poti, a Defense Ministry representative said Aug. 11, RIA Novosti reported.
• 12:40 a.m. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili appeals to the people of Georgia to come to the Georgian parliament in Tbilisi to demonstrate the unity of the nation, RIA Novosti reports.
• 12:33 a.m.: Russia will send $200 million in urgent aid to South Ossetia to address a growing humanitarian disaster in the Georgian breakaway province, RIA Novosti reports, citing Russia’s envoy to NATO.
• 12:31 a.m. Georgian Prime Minister Vladimir Gurgenidze says Russian troops have entered the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti, Gazeta reports.
• 11:53 p.m. The presidents of Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia are expected to travel to the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, Interfax reports.
• 11:27 p.m. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reportedly tells a Ukrainian official that Russia Black Sea Fleet ships were off the coast of Abkhazia to protect Russians and support the peacekeepers, RIA Novosti reported Aug. 11. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stated that it reserves the right to not allow the Russian Black Sea Fleet ships back into the Sevastopol naval base. The Black Sea Fleet ships are now off the coast of Georgia, and Kiev does not want to be involved in military conflicts, the Ukrainian official said.

Lavrov acknowledged, in a press conference today, he had told Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Saakashvili must stand down. He said that Moscow was not actively seeking to overthrow him, but that the situation would improve greatly if Saakashvili left.

At a joint press conference with Finnish counterpart, Lavrov said: “Saakashvili cannot be a partner and must stand down.” “Saakashvili’s brutal actions undermined Georgia’s confidence. We do not feel any confidence to Saakashvili,” Lavrov said.

We are seeing a Russia frustrated over the fact that the West did not allow it to overthrow Saakashvili. What may happen is that Russia will try to negotiate a deal with the West that include a regime change. Will the West sacrifice Georgia?

Medvedev has just come out with a statement announcing an end to the military operation “aiming to constrain Georgia to observe peace.” “The aggressor has been punished”, he said.

According to reports on the ground, Tbilisi has been the scene of some panicking last night, but the residents escaped a major offensive from the Russians.

I don’t have any reliable information on this, but Russia’s decision seems to have been a close call, with Russian troops within easy reach of Tbilisi. I guess that Russia figured the political cost of getting rid of Saakashvili had become too high, having probably received credible warnings from the US and European countries.

According to an exclusive report from a source in Tbilisi, residents are starting to leave the Georgian capital, heading for Armenia and Eastern Georgia [Kacheti]. Source says: “People started leaving in armenia or kacheti… Roads full of cars.” The same source says major disruption to cell phone signal.

Considering that Tbilisi is now host to massive amount of refugees from occupied regions, it is reasonable to expect a serious humanitarian problem caused by massive inflows of refugees into Armenia. Might be a good time for Turkey to step in?

Will keep you updated as we get more information from Tbilisi.

Update: I advised my source [and good friend] to leave for Yerevan. Here is his response: “Banks closed or not giving money, so I couldn’t go to Armenia… I hope will stop soon Russian aggression by international helping.”

Below are a few pieces of analysis discussing the conflict in Georgia, from today’s newspapers. A nice break, I think, from the informational bombardment of news agencies.

The NY Times says this conflict has shown the US has little leverage on Russian actions. The Independent blames the West for encouraging Georgian adventurism and contributing to today’s catastrophe. UK’s the Telegraph claims that Russia’s attack on Georgia constitutes a return to the bad old days of Cold War diplomacy. Finally, from Turkey, Zaman, writes that the post-Soviet era of ‘geopolitical pluralism’ is now over.

In the past 48 hours I have heard a lot of whining from Romanians around me, trying to explain Bucharest’s lame response to the Georgian conflict [I am sorry I cannot give you an English version of the statement - the Presidency site does not have an English version]. Let’s look at the reasons why Romania came with a late, bland statement:

1. We are a small country, at the crossroads of civilizations, exposed to the whims of Great Powers.

2. We are dependent on Russian gas and oil and we will freeze our asses off in the winter if we piss off Russia.

3. We risk sharing the same fate as Georgia if we mess with the nasty Russians.

4. We are NATO members and we must have NATO’s sanctioning of our positions.

5. We are EU members and we cannot possibly speak out of turn, before our EU partners.

Enough.

Romanian diplomacy has missed a great opportunity to stand up for a friend and ally. Let’s compare it to Poland, Central and Eastern Europe’s largest country [the second being, err, Romania].

First, take a look at the Polish Presidency Website, and then at the Romanian Presidency Website.

Second, read the latest official statements by Polish officials: look here, here and here. [all published today]

Third, sit back, and take a moment what is the difference between Poland and Romania. I say it is a professional diplomatic service and a pair of balls.

[Thank you Milozs for the links].

21:06 UPDATE: The Presidents of Poland, Ukraine, and the three Baltic countries are travelling to Tbilisi, as a show of support for Georgia. I am most deeply impressed…