Dateline: BUCHAREST

[Catch-22: no-win situation or a double bind of any type. Source: Wikipedia]

Today, two different pieces of news caught my attention. First, a report recently released by FAO that makes pretty somber predictions regarding the future evolution of prices for basic foodstuffs. According to the report, food prices are going to rise by a whopping 80% during the next ten years or so.

The second piece of news was an Economist article saying that Japan quadrupled its aid to Africa, in an effort to get a solid political footing on the Continent and harvest Africa’s rich resources.

There is a third story, but that is not really news: energy prices, which stubbornly stay above $ 130/barrel, in spite of recent demand concerns.

So there we have it: three pieces of the same puzzle. Allow me to elaborate. First, food prices. According to the FAO report, there are two main causes for the increase. First, climate changes affecting food-producing regions and thus negatively impacting supply. Second, the increasing shift from crops for human consumption toward bio fuels. Continue Reading »

David Brunnstrom writes in today’s Guardian of the EU - Russia negotiations regarding a new all-encompassing pact wit the Big Eastern Neighbor. The deal would cover energy, trade, and politics. This pact is an opportunity for the EU to pursue a more assertive stance for Russia, and it is high time the 27 did that.

As Brunnstrom points out, it will be tough to get an agreement on the terms of the Treaty at the EU level - it may take years, if it ever happens. Yet the EU Member States should be aware, regardless of their reliance on Russian natural gas, that the only way to deal with Moscow now is by playing [sensible] hard ball. Of course, say, Germany, might have problems with that argument, yet its significance remains paramount over the long run.

Even the EU states that are highly dependent on Russian resources must have realized by now that, with oil prices reaching a whopping 130 USD/barrel, current consumption patterns are not sustainable. Yes, Russia has natural gas, but, over the long run, neither oil nor natural gas is the answer. The answer, in my humble opinion, lies in diversifying energy suppliers and shifting increasingly toward green forms of energy.

This is where a common approach toward Russia comes in handy. By taking a tougher line in its negotiations toward Moscow, Europe will surely incur some costs over the short term - possibly in the form of higher energy prices, possibly in yet oher forms. But to minimize these costs, and to stand a change of getting a better deal from the Russians, the EU must speak with one voice. If we consider the EU as a singular actor with a common interest, which i think should be the case, cooperating in their relationship with Russia would lead to a pareto-optimal result, maximizing the overall benefit for all Member States. It would allow the Union to get a better deal than any of the Member States alone could ever obtain.

And then there’s the politics. The message that needs to be driven home to Putin [or Medvedev, for that matter] is that it is not ok to infringe on human rights and reconstitute a neo-Tsarist crony regime controlled by the secret services. Russia should probably try harder to look like a democracy. And the EU should give it an incentive to do just that.

A third and final reason why the EU should act with one voice in its dealing with Mosow is because of the countries in Russia’s near-abroad. These states should retain a realistic prospect of one day joining the EU. And the EU should thus retain a powerful direct leverage on these countries’ reform path [as it ultimately did, even with the worst reformers, i.e. Romania and Bulgaria]. For an example of what I have in mind, see the initiative by Poland and Sweden, among others, for an Eastern Partnership.

May Day should have been a day of celebration for Gordon Brown’s Labour Party, as a reminder of its trade union roots and past connection with the blue collar industrial heartland of Britain. This year’s local elections pretty much spoiled Labour’s party. And things are not looking to get better anytime soon.

The May 1 local elections saw the worst defeat for Labour in 40 years. To add insult to the injury, yesterday’s elections for London’s top post ended the era of Ken Livingstone, who lost by a somewhat narrow margin to Boris Johnson, the Conservative posh boy.

That was a hell of a cold shower for Gordon Brown, if he ever needed one [which is unlikely, given his country of residence]. Labour voters pretty much stayed at home or worse, voted for the opponents. Tories in London mobilized in record number and cast their votes in favor of Boris Johnson.

Continue Reading »

Picking up on Adi’s comments re the recent elections in Rome [I will get back to the more general topic of the Italian political scene in a later post], I must say I share his concern over the most recent developments there.

To sum up, Sunday’s local elections in Rome saw an unlikely winner emerging - his name is Gianni Alemanno - a member of Berlusconi’s Party and a former fascist. Initially an underdog, he ran on an anti-crime, anti-immigration ticket, vowing to curb crime and to expel all illegal immigrants caught committing offenses. He was undoubtedly helped by a recent wave of crime perpetrated by Romanian immigrants.

I am concerned because this means that Italians are fed up with immigrants [and I am not going to question their justification here], and that may lead to a rising wave of intolerance.

Without further ado, let me give the floor to a person with much more insight than me on this issue, an actual Roman, who has agreed to give an ‘exclusive interview’ for datelinebucharest.com

I had little time to follow international events this week. Partly because of post-Belgium depression, partly because of actual work. But here are two things that caught my attention:

1. Berlusconi, aka ‘Il Cavaliere’, wins a handsome victory in the last Italian elections, defying reason, common-sense and any sense of rationality. I seriously think Italy is un-governable, that it should either go for a neo-medieval confederation of city-states model, or totally outsource its government to Germany (or Switzerland).

I also think Italians are totally irrational. And not just because they elected Berlusconi. Let me explain. With 61 governments since Mussolini (that makes for a rough average of one government/year), 158 parties contesting the last elections, 0,3% economic growth forecast for 2008, 80% participation rate at the last poll, an underground economy estimated to be at about 50% of GDP (compare with 30% for Romania), Italy is by far the most blatant case of bad governance to have ever beset any country West of Vienna.

And yet Italians go to the polls, elect the same Berlusconi that did absolutely nothing to reform the economy although was afforded ample time to do so. Italy stands on a pile of garbage that needs to be cleaned (and I am not only talking about Naples here).

As a funny and, of course, fanciful sidenote, The Economist points out that, if current economic trends persist, Romania should be able to surpass Italy in terms of GDP/capita, in just 20 years. Here is the story.

2. Russia grows serious balls and starts to gobble up Abkhazia. Putin signs a decree establishing ‘official’ cooperation b/w Moscow and Abkhazia, allowing Russia to interact at a quasi-official level with de facto authorities there. The act also provides for Moscow’s recognition of legal acts passed by the authorities in Sukhumi. Here is a good analysis from Eurasianet. And here a great piece of Russian propaganda from Russia Today.

Coming in the wake of the NATO Summit here in Bucharest, Russia’s move is an annexation all but in name. If you have any doubts about it, just watch the clip from Russia Today. What this means for Georgia is that, if it ever joins NATO, it will be without Abkhazia.

O să vedem multe coloane oficiale la summit-ul NATO, dar nici una dintre ele n-o să se ridice la standardele preşedintelui Ceceniei. Aflaţi de ce, aici.

This morning a friend pointed out, over coffee, that I failed to write anything about what’s going on in Tibet. Point taken. So here it goes.

Over the last few days, there have been anti-Chinese demonstrations in Lhasa. The response of the authorities ranged from firing tear gas to live rounds. In a recent statement, the Dalai Lama claimed the Chinese military have killed as many as 80 protesters, whereas the Tibetan governor placed the count at 16. Continue Reading »

Serbia se află la răscruce. Nimic surprinzător aici, ţinând cont de conjunctură: Kosovo şi-a declarat independenţa acum o lună, iar marea majoritate a statelor UE – spre care ar trebui să tindă, în teorie, Serbia – au recunoscut independenţa.

Aşadar, sârbii n-au reuşit să se pună de acord în legătură cu direcţia pe care o va lua ţara. Kostuniţa a dizolvat Parlamentul, urmând ca alegerile generale să aibă loc pe 11 mai. E posibil ca, pentru prima dată de la căderea lui Miloşevic, Partidul Radical să revină la putere. Continue Reading »

M-am bucurat de victoria socialiştilor în alegerile din Spania. Zapatero mi se pare un exemplu pentru stânga europeană, care are în ultima vreme tot mai multe probleme de credibilitate. Iar, de partea Popularilor, Rajoy nu mi se parea un nou Sarkozy.

Mai important este că stânga a câştigat alegerile în timpul unei crize economice, când de obicei electoratul virează spre dreapta.

Iată şi motivele pentru care cred că Zapatero merita să câştige: Continue Reading »