Dateline: BUCHAREST

Russia Blog announces today the launch of the first English-language site dedicated  entirely to Russian pop music. The site is called ‘Far from Moscow’, the name of a Soviet novel and movie. The author is David MacFadyen, the Chair of the Department of Slavic Languages and Literature at UCLA. From today onward, you can also find this site in D: B’s blogroll.

David Brunnstrom writes in today’s Guardian of the EU - Russia negotiations regarding a new all-encompassing pact wit the Big Eastern Neighbor. The deal would cover energy, trade, and politics. This pact is an opportunity for the EU to pursue a more assertive stance for Russia, and it is high time the 27 did that.

As Brunnstrom points out, it will be tough to get an agreement on the terms of the Treaty at the EU level - it may take years, if it ever happens. Yet the EU Member States should be aware, regardless of their reliance on Russian natural gas, that the only way to deal with Moscow now is by playing [sensible] hard ball. Of course, say, Germany, might have problems with that argument, yet its significance remains paramount over the long run.

Even the EU states that are highly dependent on Russian resources must have realized by now that, with oil prices reaching a whopping 130 USD/barrel, current consumption patterns are not sustainable. Yes, Russia has natural gas, but, over the long run, neither oil nor natural gas is the answer. The answer, in my humble opinion, lies in diversifying energy suppliers and shifting increasingly toward green forms of energy.

This is where a common approach toward Russia comes in handy. By taking a tougher line in its negotiations toward Moscow, Europe will surely incur some costs over the short term - possibly in the form of higher energy prices, possibly in yet oher forms. But to minimize these costs, and to stand a change of getting a better deal from the Russians, the EU must speak with one voice. If we consider the EU as a singular actor with a common interest, which i think should be the case, cooperating in their relationship with Russia would lead to a pareto-optimal result, maximizing the overall benefit for all Member States. It would allow the Union to get a better deal than any of the Member States alone could ever obtain.

And then there’s the politics. The message that needs to be driven home to Putin [or Medvedev, for that matter] is that it is not ok to infringe on human rights and reconstitute a neo-Tsarist crony regime controlled by the secret services. Russia should probably try harder to look like a democracy. And the EU should give it an incentive to do just that.

A third and final reason why the EU should act with one voice in its dealing with Mosow is because of the countries in Russia’s near-abroad. These states should retain a realistic prospect of one day joining the EU. And the EU should thus retain a powerful direct leverage on these countries’ reform path [as it ultimately did, even with the worst reformers, i.e. Romania and Bulgaria]. For an example of what I have in mind, see the initiative by Poland and Sweden, among others, for an Eastern Partnership.

PP: did you see the story about the rumoured agreement between Tbilisi and Sokhumi?
SB1: no!
tell me
PP: it was in the kommersant yesterday or today supposedly the deal is a non-use of force agreement and paves the way for the return of georgian refugees in exchange for withdrawal from kodori gorge
SB1: really? but is that really feasible - i mean, would they return? i know there was a un resolution about it
PP: no idea really
i doubt it seriously
SB1: ok
and what’s next?
and why now? Continue Reading »

For those who hoped that the inauguration of the new President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, will bring about a liberal thaw, I have bad news: according to The Economist, Medved, in Russian, means bear. Which is exactly how Russia has been acting in the past few weeks. As anticipated, a string of events, such as Kosovo’s independence, Georgia and Ukraine’s bid to join NATO, coupled with the power transition at the Kremlin, all conspired to boost the aggressiveness of Russia’s foreign policies.

Take, for instance the 9 May military parade in Moscow, the first one of its sort since the fall of the Soviet Union, timed to show the West that Russia is still serious about regaining its erstwhile power, and that just because it appointed [sic!] a supposedly liberal President, it isn’t about to go soft where it matters most.

In other words, the bear is still alive and kicking. Kicking hard, that is, especially in the region known as ‘Russia’s soft under belly’, i.e., the South Caucasus. Russia has recently taken serios steps toward recognizing Georgia’s breakaway region of Abkhazia, shot down several Georgian drones [albeit never recognizing it] and, most worryingly, boosted its troop numbers in the Abkhaz region. Continue Reading »

Here is a video of a Russian MIG-29 blasting a Georgian UAV [Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, or drone]. The images are shot from the Georgian spy plane. I am shocked by the fact that the Georgian military actually owns UAV’s, I wonder where they bought them from!

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMjHbU_22Uo&hl=en]

I had little time to follow international events this week. Partly because of post-Belgium depression, partly because of actual work. But here are two things that caught my attention:

1. Berlusconi, aka ‘Il Cavaliere’, wins a handsome victory in the last Italian elections, defying reason, common-sense and any sense of rationality. I seriously think Italy is un-governable, that it should either go for a neo-medieval confederation of city-states model, or totally outsource its government to Germany (or Switzerland).

I also think Italians are totally irrational. And not just because they elected Berlusconi. Let me explain. With 61 governments since Mussolini (that makes for a rough average of one government/year), 158 parties contesting the last elections, 0,3% economic growth forecast for 2008, 80% participation rate at the last poll, an underground economy estimated to be at about 50% of GDP (compare with 30% for Romania), Italy is by far the most blatant case of bad governance to have ever beset any country West of Vienna.

And yet Italians go to the polls, elect the same Berlusconi that did absolutely nothing to reform the economy although was afforded ample time to do so. Italy stands on a pile of garbage that needs to be cleaned (and I am not only talking about Naples here).

As a funny and, of course, fanciful sidenote, The Economist points out that, if current economic trends persist, Romania should be able to surpass Italy in terms of GDP/capita, in just 20 years. Here is the story.

2. Russia grows serious balls and starts to gobble up Abkhazia. Putin signs a decree establishing ‘official’ cooperation b/w Moscow and Abkhazia, allowing Russia to interact at a quasi-official level with de facto authorities there. The act also provides for Moscow’s recognition of legal acts passed by the authorities in Sukhumi. Here is a good analysis from Eurasianet. And here a great piece of Russian propaganda from Russia Today.

Coming in the wake of the NATO Summit here in Bucharest, Russia’s move is an annexation all but in name. If you have any doubts about it, just watch the clip from Russia Today. What this means for Georgia is that, if it ever joins NATO, it will be without Abkhazia.

SB1: i saw this stratfor report today. saying that ukraine is basically giving up its NATO membership bid. what do you know about it? i didn’t see it confirmed in any mainstream news sources

FR: i saw that too. i don’t know much about it. but i do know that stratfor is highly biased. i stopped reading after the 2nd sentence. if ukraine is abandoning nato accession it is doing so only partly because of russian pressure; the major reason is that over 70% of ukranians are opposed

SB1: so now they called a referendum. which is the same as saying they are giving up the bid

FR: yeah. personally, i’ve been against the idea from the start. i don’t want ukraine controlled by russia as much as anyone

SB1: sure

FR: but one also can’t ignore ukranian societal and demographic realities

SB1: that’s true. ukraine is complicated

FR: yeah

SB1: what do you think about stratfor’s sources, esp on the FSU

FR: piss poor

SB1: they are coming out with all sorts of weird reports. like that one about russia’s retaliatory options after kosovo

FR: i think they are wasington beltway biased

SB1: they even mentioned finland there

FR: ah right

FR: haha. stratfor is OK on middle east stuff i think.  but the russia stuff is biased, poorly sourced, and far too zanyy

SB1: fun read though

Mai e o lună până la Summit-ul NATO de la Bucureşti, unde se aşteptau o serie de decizii importante pentru viitorul Alianţei, inclusiv eventuala începere a negocierilor de aderare cu Ucraina şi Georgia.

Iată că deja apele încep să se limpezească. Ieri, Ucraina pare să fi renunţat la ambiţia de a deveni membru NATO. Consiliul Coaliţiei Forţelor Democratice din Ucraina, care în fapt reprezintă partidele de guvernământ, a ieşit cu o declaraţie care va fi trimisă parlamentului şi apoi NATO, spunând că Ucraina are nevoie de mai mult timp pentru a analiza relaţiile cu NATO şi perspectivele de obţinere a statutului de membru.

Declaraţia e o surpriză ţinând cont că, cu numai o lună în urmă, Iuşcenko reafirma dorinţa Kievului de a deveni membru al Alianţei. Ce i-a determinat pe ucraineni să facă o întoarcere de 180 de grade într-un timp atât de scurt? Continue Reading »

In primul episod, deschideam subiectul alegerilor din Rusia cu un comentariu despre percepţia din vest a alegerilor ruse ca ilustrare a caracterului nedemocratic al regimului Putin.

Faptele vorbesc de la sine. Avem în Rusia un regim politic care limitat libertatea de exprimare şi a suprimat polii de putere din afara Kremlinului, fie că e vorba de jurnalişti independenţi, de opozanţi politici sau de grupuri de interese economice. Avem un preşedinte care a fost ales de către predecesorul său dintre foştii lui colaboratori şi care, la rândul său, a desemnat un succesor care a fost ales cu 65% din voturi. Continue Reading »

După ce s-a perfecţionat la spaniolă, Hillary Clinton pica cu brio testul de rusă;

Continue Reading »