Dateline: BUCHAREST

Incoming report from journalist contact inside Georgia reports that Russian troops are in Sarpi on the Black Sea coast. This is the border crossing into Turkey just south of Batumi and is quite far from Senaki or Poti where Russian troops were last reported. There seems to be cessation of military activities forthcoming on the side of the Russian military. Perhaps President Bush has good intelligence that further attacks are forthcoming when he issued his statement, which seemed like a warning to Russia not to attempt to overthrow President Saakashvili’s regime.

He also reports that a Georgian missile boat has been sunk by Russian naval forces.

In his most harsh and strongly worded statements since the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Georgia US President Bush has warned Russia not to overthrow Georgia’s “duly elected government” and that their continued actions against the sovereign nation of Georgia has “wounded its world standing and endangered ties with the West.” Bush said “”Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.”

Media pundits seem to be praising this statement and saying it is very harsh criticism of Russia but this writer, as an American citizen, believes that more must be done to come to the aid and support of a staunch ally who, before this conflict with Russia, had the third highest contingent of troops serving in the Iraqi coalition.

Earlier this evening a friend on the outskirts of Tbilisi saw Georgian convoys of trucks full of troops and large pieces of artillery returning from Gori in a hasty retreat in order to set up defensive positions around the capital of Tbilisi.

From another friend and Georgian journalist via Facebook as phones are unreliable:

“8:25pm local time. Russian tanks advancing in the West gobbling towns on their way. Zugdidi and Senaki have fallen. Gori under siege”

“8:56pm local time. Fierce battle in Gori. Population evacuated. The city still holds. Khobi fell.”

“10:11pm local time. Gori has fallen”

“10:20pm local time. Georgian toops retreat and put reinforcements around Tbilisi. Two journalits killed in Gori”

“10:40pm. Tbilisi anticipates air strike. People closing up stores, moving to basements. U.S. Dep Secretary of State has arrived. Hope this will deter Russians.”

Alexander Lomaia, the secretary of Georgia’s National Security Council, has said at midnight that there are no armed clashes currently underway. He also stated that Russian troops were in the strategic port city of Poti near the Abkhaz border but this has yet to be confirmed by another source. He confirmed the Russian Defense Ministry’s announcement that the Russian forces pulled back from Senaki.

Independent Georgian TV station Rustavi 2 is reporting that foreign ministers and representatives are coming to Georgia tomorrow and won’t leave until Russia pulls out of Georgian territory completely. Not clear if that means South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well but that is doubtful at this point in the conflict with Russia in clear control and able to dictate terms and back them up with force. Countries reportedly sending representatives include France, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine among others potentially. This could turn out to be a very interesting development indeed if it is confirmed. Of course the Baltic states have issued statements of strong support for Georgia already and thus have taken risky steps that could severely jeopardize their future relations with Russia.

In other news from the US President Bush is due to address the nation at 5:15 PM EST regarding the situation in Georgia so we will report about that and have analysis forthcoming. Stay tuned…

The Russian Ambassador to Latvia has warned Poland and the Baltic Countries that they may pay for their virulent criticisms of Russia, reports BNS. “One should not rush over such serious issues, lest important mistakes are committed, for which one will have to pay for a long time thereafter”, said Aleksandr Velchniakov, Russian Ambassador to Latvia.

Donald Tusk, Polish PM, issued an immediate response, calling Russia’s statement”irresponsible and aggressive”.

The NATO - Russia Council will convene tomorrow, at the request of Dmitri Rogozin, Russia’s Ambassador to NATO. The meeting will be held at ambassadorial level. [Source: AFP]

In the continuing and escalating war of words between the United States and Russia at the highest levels of Government the Russian Prime Minister Putin has accused the United States of actively trying to impede their ongoing military operations in Georgia. This came after President Bush harshly condemned Russia for their military operations in Georgia.

“I regret that some of our partners are not helping us but in fact are trying to impede us. I am referring to the US transfer, aboard its military transport planes and directly into the conflict zone, of the Georgian military contingent from Iraq,” Putin was quoted by AFP as saying on Monday.

Estonia has now entered into the Russian-Georgian conflict in a unique way by sending cyber defense experts to help protect against Russian hackers. Estonia is highly experienced in this regard as they themselves faced a barrage of attacks by Russian hackers earlier this year.

“Estonia will send to Georgia two specialists in information security from the Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) Estonia, Foreign Ministry representatives told the Baltic News Service.”

The interesting aspect of this development that for Russia to respond to this development would directly imply that they are directly behind and responsible for the ongoing cyber attacks against official and unnoficial Georgian websites. Depending on if or how Russia responds to this news could mean that Estonia has also entered into the fray.

Regime change - the Russian way…

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that the president of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili “must go,” the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Zalmay Khalilzad, told the Security Council. Khalilzad then looked straight at Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin and asked if Moscow was looking for “regime change.”

“Is the goal of the Russian Federation to change the leadership of Georgia?” he said. Churkin did not directly address the question but said there are leaders who “become an obstacle.” “Sometimes those leaders need to contemplate how useful they have become to their people,” he told reporters later. “Regime change is purely an American invention,” he said. “We’re all for democracy in Georgia.” [Reuters]

This morning I woke up to news of war in Ossetia. Conflict had been brewing there for a while now - in May, a war involving Russia and Georgia seemed all but inevitable. Now, shots are being fired, apparently Georgian troops are deployed inside Ossetia and Russia is already actively involved. What a way to mark the opening of the Olympics!

The facts. During the recent days, Georgia has been trying to push a peace solution to the South Ossetian conflict, but met with Tskhinvali’s defiance. Talks, scheduled for yesterday, never happened. Instead, last night conflict erupted. Georgians allege that their military responded to attacks on Georgian villages by Ossetian fighters. Regardless of whether in response to a provocation or an intentional display of force, Georgian troops entered Ossetia last night, launching a large-scale military offensive and engaging in serious fighting, leaving 15 dead, including, according to several reports, civilians, and leaving 3 Russians wounded. Other reports [cited by Reuters] state that several Russian peacekeepers have now been killed by Georgian artillery.

Russia’s response. Russia vowed to defend its citizens and, this morning, launched airborne attacks on several targets in Georgia, including [presumably a military base in] Gori. Of course, Moscow accuses Georgia of breaking the ceasefire and engaging in aggression. Also, in a recent statement, the Speaker of the Russian Parliament has reaffirmed Moscow’s intention of defending its citizens in South Ossetia. Also, from Beijing, Russian PM Putin calls Georgia’s acts ‘an aggression’ and threatens that they will not be left unchecked.

Georgia’s statements. Saakashvili has called for a general mobilization of Georgian population. In a televized address this morning, he said that part of S. Ossetia ‘has been freed’, with other official reports saying that Tbilisi is now in control over 8 towns in South Ossetia.

International reactions. So far, I haven’t heard of any official reactions to this on the international scene. Most leaders are in Beijing for the Olympics, where there has been a brief meeting between Putin and Bush. The UN Security Council has failed to reach a common statement on the conflict. Just in: President Bush is now calling for an immediate end to the conflict.

Possible future developments. The conflict looks likely to escalate, with both Georgia and Russia officially committed to it. Moscow’s hawkish stance looks especially worrying. Other reports talk of hundreds of fighters from Abkhazia hurrying to support Ossetian rebels.

News coverage. Read this story on BBC for a good round-up of the events. Also, CNN offers a good overview of the situation, and here information is better organized for people who have little background on the area. For the Russian point of view, watch this Russia Today report. Finally, a news update on Bloomberg talks of Russian attacks on Georgia. Check out civil.ge for constant updates on the situation.

The events in Ossetia are unfolding at high speed, so it is very hard to catch up on all the developments. Feel free to leave any comment if I have missed anything. I will try to keep you updated as things happen on the ground, as well as give you my own take on this.