Dateline: BUCHAREST

Nicu Popescu writes about EU - Georgia relations. The talking points [in English] are excellent and pretty much sum up the issues at stake here.

For me, the keyword that best describes the relationship between Brussels and Tbilsi is ‘asymmetry.’ As Nicu rightly points out, the EU has neither the muscle or political will to offer Georgia what it needs and wants in the short run, i.e. security guarantees, substantial political leverage in its negotiations with Russia, backed up by an increased aid flow through ENP and a strengthened economic partnership. Georgia is still semi-peripheral to the EU as a whole, although there are several states within the EU that have developed closer ties with Tbilisi [Romania, some of the Baltics, and to a certain extent Czech Republic and Poland]. Continue Reading »

Alex from the Messenger [Tbilisi's English language daily] has been liveblogging throughout election day in Georgia. FYI, I am talking about Parliamentary elections, contested by 9 parties and 3 electoral blocks.

The big issue at stake here is actually having the elections generally regarded as free and fair by the international community. That would be a big plus in terms of strengthening Georgia’s democratic credentials and helping it to secure the NATO Membership Action Plan in December.

The small issue here is whether Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) is able to hold on to a Parliamentary majority. The opposition is made up of largely Pro-Western parties, who are quite vocal against Saakashvili’s strong style of leadership [authoritarian might be another way to put it].

Anyway, the quick facts here [too tired to give you any fine print now]:
_ turnout: 55%
_ exit poll: UNM at 63%
_ opposition cry foul.

I will keep you updated with any major developments. In case I forget or I don’t have time, just check the Messenger’s blog.

PP: did you see the story about the rumoured agreement between Tbilisi and Sokhumi?
SB1: no!
tell me
PP: it was in the kommersant yesterday or today supposedly the deal is a non-use of force agreement and paves the way for the return of georgian refugees in exchange for withdrawal from kodori gorge
SB1: really? but is that really feasible - i mean, would they return? i know there was a un resolution about it
PP: no idea really
i doubt it seriously
SB1: ok
and what’s next?
and why now? Continue Reading »

Here is a video of a Russian MIG-29 blasting a Georgian UAV [Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, or drone]. The images are shot from the Georgian spy plane. I am shocked by the fact that the Georgian military actually owns UAV’s, I wonder where they bought them from!

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMjHbU_22Uo&hl=en]

I came across this blog entry [Romanian only] about South Ossetia. It tells the author’s [who happens to be an expert on frozen conflicts] impressions during a visit to Tskhinvali, Kurta, and Georgian villages. It ends with a dinner with Misha Saakashvili. Well worth the read!

I had little time to follow international events this week. Partly because of post-Belgium depression, partly because of actual work. But here are two things that caught my attention:

1. Berlusconi, aka ‘Il Cavaliere’, wins a handsome victory in the last Italian elections, defying reason, common-sense and any sense of rationality. I seriously think Italy is un-governable, that it should either go for a neo-medieval confederation of city-states model, or totally outsource its government to Germany (or Switzerland).

I also think Italians are totally irrational. And not just because they elected Berlusconi. Let me explain. With 61 governments since Mussolini (that makes for a rough average of one government/year), 158 parties contesting the last elections, 0,3% economic growth forecast for 2008, 80% participation rate at the last poll, an underground economy estimated to be at about 50% of GDP (compare with 30% for Romania), Italy is by far the most blatant case of bad governance to have ever beset any country West of Vienna.

And yet Italians go to the polls, elect the same Berlusconi that did absolutely nothing to reform the economy although was afforded ample time to do so. Italy stands on a pile of garbage that needs to be cleaned (and I am not only talking about Naples here).

As a funny and, of course, fanciful sidenote, The Economist points out that, if current economic trends persist, Romania should be able to surpass Italy in terms of GDP/capita, in just 20 years. Here is the story.

2. Russia grows serious balls and starts to gobble up Abkhazia. Putin signs a decree establishing ‘official’ cooperation b/w Moscow and Abkhazia, allowing Russia to interact at a quasi-official level with de facto authorities there. The act also provides for Moscow’s recognition of legal acts passed by the authorities in Sukhumi. Here is a good analysis from Eurasianet. And here a great piece of Russian propaganda from Russia Today.

Coming in the wake of the NATO Summit here in Bucharest, Russia’s move is an annexation all but in name. If you have any doubts about it, just watch the clip from Russia Today. What this means for Georgia is that, if it ever joins NATO, it will be without Abkhazia.

Deşi ştiu că nu interesează pe absolut nimeni, ţin totuşi să vă aduc la cunoştinţă ce s-a întâmplat cu alegerile din Armenia.

Rezultatele preliminară îl indică drept câştigător pe principalul favorit (şi actualul prim-ministru) Sergey Sarkisian, cu 53% din voturi, urmat la mare distanţă de fostul preşedinte Ter-Petrosian cu 11%.

Opoziţia a lansat proteste, acuzând autorităţile de fraudă masivă şi intimidări. S-a anunţat şi organizarea unui miting de protest la Yerevan

Avem, deci, în Armenia, un worst case scenario. Şi aici mă refer în special la potenţiale tensiuni cu privirela Nagorno Karabakh.

De ce? 1. Independenţa Kosovo; 2. Sarkysian e mai naţionalist decât Ter-Petrosian; 3. Sarkysian pare să fi câştigat; 4. Victoria lui e umbrită de proteste, ceea ce îl poate face să aibă nevoie de un mesaj puternic de unificare a electoratului; 5. Cel mai facil mesaj de acest tip e naţionalismul.

Aşa că, dacă vor fi probleme în Karabakh, nu uitaţi: you heard it first from Dateline Bucharest!

Cu tot haosul generat de proclamaţia de independenţă a kosovarilor, era să uit că marţi sunt programate alegeri în Armenia. Alegerile din Armenia sunt importante din două motive. În primul rând datorită poziţiei cheie a Armeniei ca aliat al Moscovei în spaţiul Caucazului de Sud. Şi apoi pentru că, paralel cu independenţa Kosovo, o schimbare de regim la Erevan ar fi o ocazie excelentă pentru noul preşedinte de a începe în forţă mandatul invocând precedentul balcanic pentru a forţa independenţa enclavei Nagorno Karabakh.

Cine candidează?

• Serzh Sarkisian, prim ministru şi favoritul preşedintelui actual Robert Kocharian. Kocharian a atins numărul maxim de mandate şi nu mai poate candida. Sarkisian e creat cu cele mai multe şanse, majoritatea sondajelor arătând că ar putea câştiga chiar din primul tur. Capitalul său politic e bazat în mare parte pe rezultatele economice din ultimii ani, care au dus la o creştere economică rapidă în ciuda circumstanţelor nefavorabile (relaţii tensionate cu Azerbaijan şi Turcia, lipsa accesului la mare, resurse interne reduse).

• Artur Baghdasaryan, fost preşedinte al Parlamentului, creditat cu şansa a treia.

• Levon Ter-Petrosian, fost preşedinte, forţat să demisioneze în 1998 datorită atitudinii sale considerate excesiv de conciliatorii faţă de Azerbaijan.

Baghdasarian şi Ter-Petrosian ar fi trebuit să formeze o alianţă care să mărească şansele lui Ter-Petrosian, însă înţelegerea a eşuat.

În condiţiile date, Sarkisian pare a avea şanse mari de a fi ales. Dovadă şi manifestaţia impresionantă organizată de susţinătorii săi în Yerevan azi (vezi foto).

O victorie a lui Sarkisian n-ar schimba prea mult datele problemei. Văzut ca urmaşul lui Kocharian, acesta ar continua probabil aceeaşi linie de politică externe. Singura necunoscută care rămâne ar fi atitudinea acestuia faţă de Nagorno – Karabah, în lumina independenţei Kosovo.