Dateline: BUCHAREST

[text: Stratfor; photo: AFP]

• 11:17 a.m.: Abkhazia says the Georgian troops in the Kodori Gorge are surrounded, Interfax reports.
• 10:33 a.m.: The Georgian leadership has no information indicating that Russian troops will try to take Tbilisi, Interfax reports.
• 10:25 a.m.: The Georgian Defense Ministry has said that Russian troops are approaching Tbilisi, Interfax reports.
• 10:19 a.m.: All employees of the Ukrainian Embassy in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi are being evacuated, Interfax reports.
• 10:10 a.m.: Georgian military commanders do not have a clear picture of what is going on in the current conflict because Russia destroyed Georgia’s radars and military communication facilities, RIA Novosti reports. Representatives of the Georgian government have said the country’s media are issuing contradictory reports, especially on Russian troop movements.
• 10:10 a.m.: Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili told the Council of National Security that Georgian tanks are headed to the city of Gori, RIA Novosti reports.
• 9:46 a.m.: Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili is awaiting the arrival of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Polish President Lech Kaczynski, Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Estonian President Hendrik Ilves, Interfax reports. In the morning of Aug. 12, before their arrival, Saakashvili will hold an emergency meeting of parliament. The meeting will be at an undisclosed location but will be partially televised for the nation to see.

9 a.m.

• 8:03 a.m.: Interfax reports that South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity warned the European Union and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe that Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili is trying to use them to “continue his aggressive policy.”
• 6:24 a.m.: South Ossetia’s State Committee of Information and Press reports that though some minor shelling is coming from outside of South Ossetia, the country is considered “clean” of Georgians, South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity said.
• 6 a.m.: The Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia launches a military operation to force Georgian troops out of the Kodori Gorge, according to Interfax.

6 a.m.

• 5:53 a.m.: The government of the secessionist Georgian region of Abkhazia plans to push Georgian forces from the Kodori Gorge in a few days, Interfax reports.

3 a.m.

• 1:37 a.m. U.S. President George W. Bush, calling Russia’s action against Georgia unacceptable and an invasion of a sovereign state, says that “there is evidence that Russian forces may soon begin bombing the civilian airport in the capital city” of Tbilisi, Reuters reports. Bush says that if Russia does bomb Tbilisi’s airport, it would “represent a dramatic and brutal escalation of the conflict in Georgia.”
• 1:24 a.m. U.S. President George W. Bush, in a live television broadcast, says that it is time for Russia to end the crisis in Georgia.
• 1:06 a.m.: Georgia National Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaya said Aug. 12 in a briefing that there is no fighting currently taking place on Georgian Territory, Interfax reported.
• 12: 52 a.m.: Russian peacekeeping units have not taken the Georgian port city of Poti, a Defense Ministry representative said Aug. 11, RIA Novosti reported.
• 12:40 a.m. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili appeals to the people of Georgia to come to the Georgian parliament in Tbilisi to demonstrate the unity of the nation, RIA Novosti reports.
• 12:33 a.m.: Russia will send $200 million in urgent aid to South Ossetia to address a growing humanitarian disaster in the Georgian breakaway province, RIA Novosti reports, citing Russia’s envoy to NATO.
• 12:31 a.m. Georgian Prime Minister Vladimir Gurgenidze says Russian troops have entered the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti, Gazeta reports.
• 11:53 p.m. The presidents of Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia are expected to travel to the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, Interfax reports.
• 11:27 p.m. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reportedly tells a Ukrainian official that Russia Black Sea Fleet ships were off the coast of Abkhazia to protect Russians and support the peacekeepers, RIA Novosti reported Aug. 11. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stated that it reserves the right to not allow the Russian Black Sea Fleet ships back into the Sevastopol naval base. The Black Sea Fleet ships are now off the coast of Georgia, and Kiev does not want to be involved in military conflicts, the Ukrainian official said.

Lavrov acknowledged, in a press conference today, he had told Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Saakashvili must stand down. He said that Moscow was not actively seeking to overthrow him, but that the situation would improve greatly if Saakashvili left.

At a joint press conference with Finnish counterpart, Lavrov said: “Saakashvili cannot be a partner and must stand down.” “Saakashvili’s brutal actions undermined Georgia’s confidence. We do not feel any confidence to Saakashvili,” Lavrov said.

We are seeing a Russia frustrated over the fact that the West did not allow it to overthrow Saakashvili. What may happen is that Russia will try to negotiate a deal with the West that include a regime change. Will the West sacrifice Georgia?

Medvedev has just come out with a statement announcing an end to the military operation “aiming to constrain Georgia to observe peace.” “The aggressor has been punished”, he said.

According to reports on the ground, Tbilisi has been the scene of some panicking last night, but the residents escaped a major offensive from the Russians.

I don’t have any reliable information on this, but Russia’s decision seems to have been a close call, with Russian troops within easy reach of Tbilisi. I guess that Russia figured the political cost of getting rid of Saakashvili had become too high, having probably received credible warnings from the US and European countries.

This was posted by an American reader as a comment on this very blog but I felt it was well said and should be given more visability so here it is:

I agree that more needs to be done; having a much larger and more publicized contingent of foreign envoys to occupy Tbilisi immediately with the President and act as a human diplomatic blockade/witness to the injustice would help, along with an instant call for economic sanctions targeting Russia.  With oil prices subsiding temporarily we as a world community can adjust world demand away from Russian oil and gas and create new lines of supply to those who will need altternate fuels.  As we are evidently unwilling to commit troops, we need to give the Georgian people assurance that their peaceful resistance to make the takeover of Tbilisi and Georgia unmanageable for Russia will draw real encouragement and support from more active allies, including notably the US and the UK.  If they could band together for Afghanistan and Iraq, why not Georgia? Otherwise Ukraine and all of the bordering states will be next in line for this brutality, and anyone abroad or in the US Congress  who will not join in this effort NOW, before it is effectively too late within a day ot two, with Gerogia’s President, dead, in prison or, at best, in exile. Surely those who withhold support from Georgia in their hour of need deserve the sternest treatment from a coalition - and not by making them eat Stolichnaya fries.

Thank you for reading and for your comments.

From my contact in Khashuri:

“I think their target was the Osiauri Military Base. The whole house shook [when the bombs fell]. All the ways are blocked, Mike. We can’t go anywhere.”

We had asked them to leave Khashuri for Akhaltsikhe but they said all roads are blocked, presumably by Russian forces that are advancing on Tbilisi.

Incoming report from journalist contact inside Georgia reports that Russian troops are in Sarpi on the Black Sea coast. This is the border crossing into Turkey just south of Batumi and is quite far from Senaki or Poti where Russian troops were last reported. There seems to be cessation of military activities forthcoming on the side of the Russian military. Perhaps President Bush has good intelligence that further attacks are forthcoming when he issued his statement, which seemed like a warning to Russia not to attempt to overthrow President Saakashvili’s regime.

He also reports that a Georgian missile boat has been sunk by Russian naval forces.

In his most harsh and strongly worded statements since the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Georgia US President Bush has warned Russia not to overthrow Georgia’s “duly elected government” and that their continued actions against the sovereign nation of Georgia has “wounded its world standing and endangered ties with the West.” Bush said “”Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.”

Media pundits seem to be praising this statement and saying it is very harsh criticism of Russia but this writer, as an American citizen, believes that more must be done to come to the aid and support of a staunch ally who, before this conflict with Russia, had the third highest contingent of troops serving in the Iraqi coalition.

Earlier this evening a friend on the outskirts of Tbilisi saw Georgian convoys of trucks full of troops and large pieces of artillery returning from Gori in a hasty retreat in order to set up defensive positions around the capital of Tbilisi.

From another friend and Georgian journalist via Facebook as phones are unreliable:

“8:25pm local time. Russian tanks advancing in the West gobbling towns on their way. Zugdidi and Senaki have fallen. Gori under siege”

“8:56pm local time. Fierce battle in Gori. Population evacuated. The city still holds. Khobi fell.”

“10:11pm local time. Gori has fallen”

“10:20pm local time. Georgian toops retreat and put reinforcements around Tbilisi. Two journalits killed in Gori”

“10:40pm. Tbilisi anticipates air strike. People closing up stores, moving to basements. U.S. Dep Secretary of State has arrived. Hope this will deter Russians.”

Alexander Lomaia, the secretary of Georgia’s National Security Council, has said at midnight that there are no armed clashes currently underway. He also stated that Russian troops were in the strategic port city of Poti near the Abkhaz border but this has yet to be confirmed by another source. He confirmed the Russian Defense Ministry’s announcement that the Russian forces pulled back from Senaki.