Dateline: BUCHAREST

Earlier this evening a friend on the outskirts of Tbilisi saw Georgian convoys of trucks full of troops and large pieces of artillery returning from Gori in a hasty retreat in order to set up defensive positions around the capital of Tbilisi.

From another friend and Georgian journalist via Facebook as phones are unreliable:

“8:25pm local time. Russian tanks advancing in the West gobbling towns on their way. Zugdidi and Senaki have fallen. Gori under siege”

“8:56pm local time. Fierce battle in Gori. Population evacuated. The city still holds. Khobi fell.”

“10:11pm local time. Gori has fallen”

“10:20pm local time. Georgian toops retreat and put reinforcements around Tbilisi. Two journalits killed in Gori”

“10:40pm. Tbilisi anticipates air strike. People closing up stores, moving to basements. U.S. Dep Secretary of State has arrived. Hope this will deter Russians.”

Alexander Lomaia, the secretary of Georgia’s National Security Council, has said at midnight that there are no armed clashes currently underway. He also stated that Russian troops were in the strategic port city of Poti near the Abkhaz border but this has yet to be confirmed by another source. He confirmed the Russian Defense Ministry’s announcement that the Russian forces pulled back from Senaki.

A source on the ground in the Georgian town of Khashuri on the main East-West road reports they have been bombed. This shows the attacks across the territory of Georgia are ongoing and not winding down as some international media sources seem to be indicating. Phone lines are very spotty to Georgia from abroad but we have received an sms from Khashuri saying simply “we have just been bombed”. Khashuri also contains the main east-west railway hub in Georgia and may have some strategic value. These reports are unconfirmed by any media source as of now. We will provide more updates as we receive them.

Independent Georgian TV station Rustavi 2 is reporting that foreign ministers and representatives are coming to Georgia tomorrow and won’t leave until Russia pulls out of Georgian territory completely. Not clear if that means South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well but that is doubtful at this point in the conflict with Russia in clear control and able to dictate terms and back them up with force. Countries reportedly sending representatives include France, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine among others potentially. This could turn out to be a very interesting development indeed if it is confirmed. Of course the Baltic states have issued statements of strong support for Georgia already and thus have taken risky steps that could severely jeopardize their future relations with Russia.

In other news from the US President Bush is due to address the nation at 5:15 PM EST regarding the situation in Georgia so we will report about that and have analysis forthcoming. Stay tuned…

According to an exclusive report from a source in Tbilisi, residents are starting to leave the Georgian capital, heading for Armenia and Eastern Georgia [Kacheti]. Source says: “People started leaving in armenia or kacheti… Roads full of cars.” The same source says major disruption to cell phone signal.

Considering that Tbilisi is now host to massive amount of refugees from occupied regions, it is reasonable to expect a serious humanitarian problem caused by massive inflows of refugees into Armenia. Might be a good time for Turkey to step in?

Will keep you updated as we get more information from Tbilisi.

Update: I advised my source [and good friend] to leave for Yerevan. Here is his response: “Banks closed or not giving money, so I couldn’t go to Armenia… I hope will stop soon Russian aggression by international helping.”

Unconfirmed reports from contacts on the ground are reporting that Russian forces have advanced from Gori on the main highway and are now in Mtskheta, only 20km and less than half an hour from Tbilisi. Interesting to note that nearly no fighting is being reported. More to come as we receive and can confirm these reports…

UPDATE: Mikheil Saakashvili has asked Tbilisi residents to stay put, in an effort to assuage the population. Once again, the reports regarding the presence of Russian troops in Mtskheta are unconfirmed as of now!

Below are a few pieces of analysis discussing the conflict in Georgia, from today’s newspapers. A nice break, I think, from the informational bombardment of news agencies.

The NY Times says this conflict has shown the US has little leverage on Russian actions. The Independent blames the West for encouraging Georgian adventurism and contributing to today’s catastrophe. UK’s the Telegraph claims that Russia’s attack on Georgia constitutes a return to the bad old days of Cold War diplomacy. Finally, from Turkey, Zaman, writes that the post-Soviet era of ‘geopolitical pluralism’ is now over.

In the past 48 hours I have heard a lot of whining from Romanians around me, trying to explain Bucharest’s lame response to the Georgian conflict [I am sorry I cannot give you an English version of the statement - the Presidency site does not have an English version]. Let’s look at the reasons why Romania came with a late, bland statement:

1. We are a small country, at the crossroads of civilizations, exposed to the whims of Great Powers.

2. We are dependent on Russian gas and oil and we will freeze our asses off in the winter if we piss off Russia.

3. We risk sharing the same fate as Georgia if we mess with the nasty Russians.

4. We are NATO members and we must have NATO’s sanctioning of our positions.

5. We are EU members and we cannot possibly speak out of turn, before our EU partners.

Enough.

Romanian diplomacy has missed a great opportunity to stand up for a friend and ally. Let’s compare it to Poland, Central and Eastern Europe’s largest country [the second being, err, Romania].

First, take a look at the Polish Presidency Website, and then at the Romanian Presidency Website.

Second, read the latest official statements by Polish officials: look here, here and here. [all published today]

Third, sit back, and take a moment what is the difference between Poland and Romania. I say it is a professional diplomatic service and a pair of balls.

[Thank you Milozs for the links].

21:06 UPDATE: The Presidents of Poland, Ukraine, and the three Baltic countries are travelling to Tbilisi, as a show of support for Georgia. I am most deeply impressed…

The Russian Ambassador to Latvia has warned Poland and the Baltic Countries that they may pay for their virulent criticisms of Russia, reports BNS. “One should not rush over such serious issues, lest important mistakes are committed, for which one will have to pay for a long time thereafter”, said Aleksandr Velchniakov, Russian Ambassador to Latvia.

Donald Tusk, Polish PM, issued an immediate response, calling Russia’s statement”irresponsible and aggressive”.

Russian troops have taken control of the major highway passing through Gori, and “split the country’s western part with the east”, declared Saakashvili some 30 minutes ago, quoted by Civil Georgia . Here are other excerpts from Saakashvili desperate’s speech:

Situation is extremely grave. This is occupation attempt, attempt to totally occupy Georgia, attempt to destroy Georgia.”

Russia goal is to put an end to existence of the Georgian state.

We are receiving only moral and humanitarian help from the international community, but we need more than that. We want them to stop this barbaric aggressor.

Georgians are now bracing for an all-out attack by Russia on Tbilisi, with the aim of forcing President Saakashvili to step down.

Italian diplomatic reactions following Russia’s invasion in Georgia so far have stood out within the UE. Earlier today, Italian FM Frattini said that Italy opposes the creation of a “European anti-Russian coalition”, adding that a EU condemnation of Russia would have negative effects for the whole of Europe.

In a later statement, Frattini said that Premier Berlusconi is exerting “moral pressure” over Putin, in an effort to end the conflict.

Of course, the story of Italy’s dependence on foreign oil and gas is well known. So is Italy’s general disinterest and awkwardness in matters of foreign affairs. But, in this case, to paraphrase Jacques Chirac’s infamous words, Italy “has missed a good opportunity to shut up.”