Dateline: BUCHAREST

PP: did you see the story about the rumoured agreement between Tbilisi and Sokhumi?
SB1: no!
tell me
PP: it was in the kommersant yesterday or today supposedly the deal is a non-use of force agreement and paves the way for the return of georgian refugees in exchange for withdrawal from kodori gorge
SB1: really? but is that really feasible - i mean, would they return? i know there was a un resolution about it
PP: no idea really
i doubt it seriously
SB1: ok
and what’s next?
and why now? Continue Reading »

For those who hoped that the inauguration of the new President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, will bring about a liberal thaw, I have bad news: according to The Economist, Medved, in Russian, means bear. Which is exactly how Russia has been acting in the past few weeks. As anticipated, a string of events, such as Kosovo’s independence, Georgia and Ukraine’s bid to join NATO, coupled with the power transition at the Kremlin, all conspired to boost the aggressiveness of Russia’s foreign policies.

Take, for instance the 9 May military parade in Moscow, the first one of its sort since the fall of the Soviet Union, timed to show the West that Russia is still serious about regaining its erstwhile power, and that just because it appointed [sic!] a supposedly liberal President, it isn’t about to go soft where it matters most.

In other words, the bear is still alive and kicking. Kicking hard, that is, especially in the region known as ‘Russia’s soft under belly’, i.e., the South Caucasus. Russia has recently taken serios steps toward recognizing Georgia’s breakaway region of Abkhazia, shot down several Georgian drones [albeit never recognizing it] and, most worryingly, boosted its troop numbers in the Abkhaz region. Continue Reading »

Here is a video of a Russian MIG-29 blasting a Georgian UAV [Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, or drone]. The images are shot from the Georgian spy plane. I am shocked by the fact that the Georgian military actually owns UAV’s, I wonder where they bought them from!

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMjHbU_22Uo&hl=en]

I had little time to follow international events this week. Partly because of post-Belgium depression, partly because of actual work. But here are two things that caught my attention:

1. Berlusconi, aka ‘Il Cavaliere’, wins a handsome victory in the last Italian elections, defying reason, common-sense and any sense of rationality. I seriously think Italy is un-governable, that it should either go for a neo-medieval confederation of city-states model, or totally outsource its government to Germany (or Switzerland).

I also think Italians are totally irrational. And not just because they elected Berlusconi. Let me explain. With 61 governments since Mussolini (that makes for a rough average of one government/year), 158 parties contesting the last elections, 0,3% economic growth forecast for 2008, 80% participation rate at the last poll, an underground economy estimated to be at about 50% of GDP (compare with 30% for Romania), Italy is by far the most blatant case of bad governance to have ever beset any country West of Vienna.

And yet Italians go to the polls, elect the same Berlusconi that did absolutely nothing to reform the economy although was afforded ample time to do so. Italy stands on a pile of garbage that needs to be cleaned (and I am not only talking about Naples here).

As a funny and, of course, fanciful sidenote, The Economist points out that, if current economic trends persist, Romania should be able to surpass Italy in terms of GDP/capita, in just 20 years. Here is the story.

2. Russia grows serious balls and starts to gobble up Abkhazia. Putin signs a decree establishing ‘official’ cooperation b/w Moscow and Abkhazia, allowing Russia to interact at a quasi-official level with de facto authorities there. The act also provides for Moscow’s recognition of legal acts passed by the authorities in Sukhumi. Here is a good analysis from Eurasianet. And here a great piece of Russian propaganda from Russia Today.

Coming in the wake of the NATO Summit here in Bucharest, Russia’s move is an annexation all but in name. If you have any doubts about it, just watch the clip from Russia Today. What this means for Georgia is that, if it ever joins NATO, it will be without Abkhazia.