Dateline: BUCHAREST

Am acceptat invitatia dateline de a deveni un fel de recurring guest (ca star ca zombie6 nu sunt inca pe acest blog, dar asta inseamna ca de-acum incolo trebuie sa am grija ce spun si cum spun cand vine vorba de criticat si de votat.

Anyways, ma gandeam sa incep furtunos cu comentariul unui articol aparut azi pe hotnews si care mi-a fost trimis si mie de catre o prietena din Geneva. Tin sa mentionez de la inceput ca nu citesc ziarul Le Temps si ca nu eram absolut deloc la curent cu caricatura aparuta in ziar saptamana trecuta. Sincer sa fiu, nu pot sa ma declar surprins, mai ales dupa cele doua celebre campanii ale SVP-ului (partidul de centru-dreapta pe hartie ca ideologie, ceva mai extrem in PR si media prin porta-vocea sa Christoph Blocher, o combinatie mai degraba interesanta intre Berlusconi, Le Pen si un bunicut care se uita la fel de mult la Bloomberg si la Viata Satului) de anul trecut ( si poza ) si de anul asta soldate cu esecuri lamentabile si care au dus in final la debarcarea lui Blocher din Guvern din postul de consilier federal (ministru) de interne, un lucru absolut nemaiintalnit in politica helveta cu consecinte absolut dezastruase pentru imaginea tarii. Ceea ce trebuie adaugat la acest context e faptul ca Le Temps e un ziar fundamentalmente si iremediabil genevez, adica in parte elvetian francez (romand) si in parte francez, cea mai proasta combinatie posibila. Pentru amuzamentul suplimentar al unora gen zombie6, cantonul se numeste Republique et canton de Genève :) Ca sa intelegeti mai bine, parlamentul genevez e impartit in 2 treimi forte de dreapta si o treime socialisti plus verzi (fifty fifty), procurorul general care tocmai a fost reales cu un landslide a socat intreaga opinie publica prin expulzarea imediata a tututror squaterilor din Geneva, ceea ce a dus la adevarate miscari de strada si masini incendiate (believe me, it is really shocking for somebody living in CH to see the tram stop because of a flaming car in the middle of the street :).

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Nicu Popescu writes about EU - Georgia relations. The talking points [in English] are excellent and pretty much sum up the issues at stake here.

For me, the keyword that best describes the relationship between Brussels and Tbilsi is ‘asymmetry.’ As Nicu rightly points out, the EU has neither the muscle or political will to offer Georgia what it needs and wants in the short run, i.e. security guarantees, substantial political leverage in its negotiations with Russia, backed up by an increased aid flow through ENP and a strengthened economic partnership. Georgia is still semi-peripheral to the EU as a whole, although there are several states within the EU that have developed closer ties with Tbilisi [Romania, some of the Baltics, and to a certain extent Czech Republic and Poland]. Continue Reading »

David Brunnstrom writes in today’s Guardian of the EU - Russia negotiations regarding a new all-encompassing pact wit the Big Eastern Neighbor. The deal would cover energy, trade, and politics. This pact is an opportunity for the EU to pursue a more assertive stance for Russia, and it is high time the 27 did that.

As Brunnstrom points out, it will be tough to get an agreement on the terms of the Treaty at the EU level - it may take years, if it ever happens. Yet the EU Member States should be aware, regardless of their reliance on Russian natural gas, that the only way to deal with Moscow now is by playing [sensible] hard ball. Of course, say, Germany, might have problems with that argument, yet its significance remains paramount over the long run.

Even the EU states that are highly dependent on Russian resources must have realized by now that, with oil prices reaching a whopping 130 USD/barrel, current consumption patterns are not sustainable. Yes, Russia has natural gas, but, over the long run, neither oil nor natural gas is the answer. The answer, in my humble opinion, lies in diversifying energy suppliers and shifting increasingly toward green forms of energy.

This is where a common approach toward Russia comes in handy. By taking a tougher line in its negotiations toward Moscow, Europe will surely incur some costs over the short term - possibly in the form of higher energy prices, possibly in yet oher forms. But to minimize these costs, and to stand a change of getting a better deal from the Russians, the EU must speak with one voice. If we consider the EU as a singular actor with a common interest, which i think should be the case, cooperating in their relationship with Russia would lead to a pareto-optimal result, maximizing the overall benefit for all Member States. It would allow the Union to get a better deal than any of the Member States alone could ever obtain.

And then there’s the politics. The message that needs to be driven home to Putin [or Medvedev, for that matter] is that it is not ok to infringe on human rights and reconstitute a neo-Tsarist crony regime controlled by the secret services. Russia should probably try harder to look like a democracy. And the EU should give it an incentive to do just that.

A third and final reason why the EU should act with one voice in its dealing with Mosow is because of the countries in Russia’s near-abroad. These states should retain a realistic prospect of one day joining the EU. And the EU should thus retain a powerful direct leverage on these countries’ reform path [as it ultimately did, even with the worst reformers, i.e. Romania and Bulgaria]. For an example of what I have in mind, see the initiative by Poland and Sweden, among others, for an Eastern Partnership.

Serbia se află la răscruce. Nimic surprinzător aici, ţinând cont de conjunctură: Kosovo şi-a declarat independenţa acum o lună, iar marea majoritate a statelor UE – spre care ar trebui să tindă, în teorie, Serbia – au recunoscut independenţa.

Aşadar, sârbii n-au reuşit să se pună de acord în legătură cu direcţia pe care o va lua ţara. Kostuniţa a dizolvat Parlamentul, urmând ca alegerile generale să aibă loc pe 11 mai. E posibil ca, pentru prima dată de la căderea lui Miloşevic, Partidul Radical să revină la putere. Continue Reading »