Dateline: BUCHAREST

Nicu Popescu writes about EU - Georgia relations. The talking points [in English] are excellent and pretty much sum up the issues at stake here.

For me, the keyword that best describes the relationship between Brussels and Tbilsi is ‘asymmetry.’ As Nicu rightly points out, the EU has neither the muscle or political will to offer Georgia what it needs and wants in the short run, i.e. security guarantees, substantial political leverage in its negotiations with Russia, backed up by an increased aid flow through ENP and a strengthened economic partnership. Georgia is still semi-peripheral to the EU as a whole, although there are several states within the EU that have developed closer ties with Tbilisi [Romania, some of the Baltics, and to a certain extent Czech Republic and Poland]. Continue Reading »

Alex from the Messenger [Tbilisi's English language daily] has been liveblogging throughout election day in Georgia. FYI, I am talking about Parliamentary elections, contested by 9 parties and 3 electoral blocks.

The big issue at stake here is actually having the elections generally regarded as free and fair by the international community. That would be a big plus in terms of strengthening Georgia’s democratic credentials and helping it to secure the NATO Membership Action Plan in December.

The small issue here is whether Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) is able to hold on to a Parliamentary majority. The opposition is made up of largely Pro-Western parties, who are quite vocal against Saakashvili’s strong style of leadership [authoritarian might be another way to put it].

Anyway, the quick facts here [too tired to give you any fine print now]:
_ turnout: 55%
_ exit poll: UNM at 63%
_ opposition cry foul.

I will keep you updated with any major developments. In case I forget or I don’t have time, just check the Messenger’s blog.

For those who hoped that the inauguration of the new President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, will bring about a liberal thaw, I have bad news: according to The Economist, Medved, in Russian, means bear. Which is exactly how Russia has been acting in the past few weeks. As anticipated, a string of events, such as Kosovo’s independence, Georgia and Ukraine’s bid to join NATO, coupled with the power transition at the Kremlin, all conspired to boost the aggressiveness of Russia’s foreign policies.

Take, for instance the 9 May military parade in Moscow, the first one of its sort since the fall of the Soviet Union, timed to show the West that Russia is still serious about regaining its erstwhile power, and that just because it appointed [sic!] a supposedly liberal President, it isn’t about to go soft where it matters most.

In other words, the bear is still alive and kicking. Kicking hard, that is, especially in the region known as ‘Russia’s soft under belly’, i.e., the South Caucasus. Russia has recently taken serios steps toward recognizing Georgia’s breakaway region of Abkhazia, shot down several Georgian drones [albeit never recognizing it] and, most worryingly, boosted its troop numbers in the Abkhaz region. Continue Reading »

Here is a video of a Russian MIG-29 blasting a Georgian UAV [Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, or drone]. The images are shot from the Georgian spy plane. I am shocked by the fact that the Georgian military actually owns UAV’s, I wonder where they bought them from!

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMjHbU_22Uo&hl=en]

I came across this blog entry [Romanian only] about South Ossetia. It tells the author’s [who happens to be an expert on frozen conflicts] impressions during a visit to Tskhinvali, Kurta, and Georgian villages. It ends with a dinner with Misha Saakashvili. Well worth the read!