Dateline: BUCHAREST

Here are the developments from overnight:

- Russia sent the Black Sea fleet and blockaded Georgia
- Ukraine said it will not allow Russian ships from passing through its territorial waters
- Georgian troops have retreated from Tskhinvali, which is now under Russian control
- Russia said it will only agree to a ceasefire that would allow for a return to the status quo ante, and a freeing of ‘towns occupied by Georgia’
- Russia bombed a military factory and a runway near Tbilisi airport
- US called in a statement, Russia’s actions “dangerous and disproportionate”
- Abkhazia is deploying troops in Kodori Gorge

So, for now the war seems to be over in Ossetia, but Georgia is now under a Russian blockade and Abkhazia could explode at any time.

The US is taking a somewhat tougher stance against Russia, but will it be enough to stop Russia?

For those who hoped that the inauguration of the new President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, will bring about a liberal thaw, I have bad news: according to The Economist, Medved, in Russian, means bear. Which is exactly how Russia has been acting in the past few weeks. As anticipated, a string of events, such as Kosovo’s independence, Georgia and Ukraine’s bid to join NATO, coupled with the power transition at the Kremlin, all conspired to boost the aggressiveness of Russia’s foreign policies.

Take, for instance the 9 May military parade in Moscow, the first one of its sort since the fall of the Soviet Union, timed to show the West that Russia is still serious about regaining its erstwhile power, and that just because it appointed [sic!] a supposedly liberal President, it isn’t about to go soft where it matters most.

In other words, the bear is still alive and kicking. Kicking hard, that is, especially in the region known as ‘Russia’s soft under belly’, i.e., the South Caucasus. Russia has recently taken serios steps toward recognizing Georgia’s breakaway region of Abkhazia, shot down several Georgian drones [albeit never recognizing it] and, most worryingly, boosted its troop numbers in the Abkhaz region. Continue Reading »