Dateline: BUCHAREST

[Georgian woman in Gori. Source: AP]

This morning I was woken up by a text message from Tbilisi: “Last night Tbilisi bombed! Aeroport and some places!” The information was later confirmed by other people in Tbilisi, who reported waking up to massive explosions, at 4:30.

During the past few hours, Russia has seemed to ease the pressure on Georgia - for now at a declaratory level. Medvedev declared to Interfax that military operations in Georgia are almost complete. Russian statements seem to indicate that Moscow is willing to end major operations following the securing of the South Ossetian territory. Yet, bombing of Georgian targets has continued. President Saakashvili had to interrupt an interview to flee to a bomb shelter, among aerial raids on Tbilisi.

The situation in Ossetia is still chaotic. Reports seem to indicate that, after heavy fighting last night, Georgian troops have been able to push back Russian forces that were closing in on Gori. Earlier today, an Ossetian source said Georgians had resumed offensive inside South Ossetia. If confirmed, this could mean that Russians have been forced to retreat north of the Ossetian boundary and are being pursued by Georgian forces.

Here is a video about Russian bombings on Tbilisi.

According to Romanian TV channel Realitatea, Saakashvili and French FM Bernard Kouchner had to be evacuated from Gori amid heavy Russian artillery fire. Watch the video here.

[Text and photo from Stratfor]

5:31 a.m.: Georgia’s Interior Ministry denies a report it made earlier in which it said that Russian planes had bombed a military base and radar installation near Tbilisi.
• 4:20 a.m.: Russian planes bomb the Kojori military base near Tbilisi and a radar installation, Reuters reports, citing comments from Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili.

3 a.m.

• 2:51 a.m.: Two groups of Georgian raiders have been captured in South Ossetia, Interfax reports.
• 2:25 a.m.: Gunfire has ceased in Tskhinvali, the capital of the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia, and peacekeepers said Georgian forces failed to open a “humanitarian corridor,” Interfax reports.
• 2:07 a.m.: The Russian navy confirms that it sank a Georgian boat, according to Interfax.

[From www.civil.ge]

The official Georgian government account of major developments for August 9 and August 10:

August 9

19:10 - TbilAviaMsheni aviation factory was bombed by Russian warplanes again.
19:05 - Russian aircraft dropped a bomb on Tbilisi Civil Airport.
17:30 - Georgia announced a ceasefire and said troops had been withdrawn from the conflict zone.
16:10 - Russian aircraft bombed the only remaining bridge on the highway linking east and west Georgia, causing a fire on the bridge. The fire has been put out, and traffic restored.
16:05 - Gori was bombed by Russian planes.
15:10 – Russian troops and Abkhaz separatists launched a ground attack on upper Kodori Gorge.
15:00 - Russian airplanes bombed the village of Knolevi in the northern Kareli district.

By noon of 10 August there were 20-25,000 IDPs from the regions of Tskhinvali and Gori, as a result of Russian attacks. The number of IDPs is growing quickly.

August 10

Six thousand Russian troops entered Georgia through Roki tunnel overnight; as well as 90 tanks; 150 Armored Personnel Carriers and 250 artillery gunships.
Four thousand Russian troops landed at Ochamchire port in Abkhazia, from the Black Sea port of Sevastopol.

05:45 - A Russian jet entered Georgian airspace from Dagestan and dropped three bombs on a Tbilisi airplane factory.
07:00 - Georgian Government Forces withdrew from Tskhinvali.
07:40 - Russian jets bombed the village of Urta in Zugdidi district.
08:45 - Ten Russian jets attacked Upper Abkhazia, one of which was downed by Georgian Government troops.
09:00 - The Government of Georgia reported 45 soldiers and 47 civilians had been killed.

Here are the developments from overnight:

- Russia sent the Black Sea fleet and blockaded Georgia
- Ukraine said it will not allow Russian ships from passing through its territorial waters
- Georgian troops have retreated from Tskhinvali, which is now under Russian control
- Russia said it will only agree to a ceasefire that would allow for a return to the status quo ante, and a freeing of ‘towns occupied by Georgia’
- Russia bombed a military factory and a runway near Tbilisi airport
- US called in a statement, Russia’s actions “dangerous and disproportionate”
- Abkhazia is deploying troops in Kodori Gorge

So, for now the war seems to be over in Ossetia, but Georgia is now under a Russian blockade and Abkhazia could explode at any time.

The US is taking a somewhat tougher stance against Russia, but will it be enough to stop Russia?

As the conflict in Ossetia is nearing 48 hours since its outbreak, there are few signs indicating that the fighting may subside. On the contrary, every hour news agencies churn out new reports that talk about fresh escalation.

• This morning, Russian troops bombed several targets inside Georgia including. The town of Gori, the Black Sea port of Poti, a military base at the outskirts of Tbilisi, as well as major infrastructure in Georgia were hit by Russian airborne and land-based artillery fire. Russia is further turning the screw by deploying the Black Sea fleet to positions just outside the Abkhazian coast.
• The situation in Ossetia is uncertain. Depending on their source, reports will say that Russia [or Georgia] are in control of Tskhinvali, that Ossetian refugees are flowing north toward Vladikavkaz, that Georgians are generating a massive humanitarian crisis etc. What appears to be certain is that there is an information war paralleling the war on the ground. Who wins the information war may well be the same party that turns out as a winner from the actual conflict.
• Statements and positions. Saakashvili spoke again today, called on the international community and dennounced Russia’s aggression. Bush also came out with a statement, calling for an immediate ceasefire, the usual blah blah, this time in slightly stronger words. Poland asked for the EU to convoke an extraordinary summit to deal with the conflict, and stated [jointly with the Baltics] that Russia has now ‘crossed the line’ and must be openly opposed by the EU. Germany’s FM Steinmeier warns against the danger of regional spillover of the Ossetia conflict. OSCE Chairman Stubb [also Finnish FM] said expecations of a quick solutions should be kept low. ‘On a scale of one to 10, we are at about two’, he was quoted as saying.
• Danger of spillover. This afternoon, news channels were already reporting the emergence of a second front for Georgia, triggered by attacks from Abkhaz forces on border regions in Georgia. There is real danger for the trend to continue, and for Abkhazia turns ‘hot’.

Quick roundup: the situation in Georgia looks truly desperate. Tbilisi will face a dire catastrophe if the international community does not take clear actions toward stopping the hostilities. As I am writing this, EU, US and OSCE envoys are making their way to Georgia, to mediate a solution to the hostilities.

Adi reports, citing reuters, that Georgian troops are now in complete control of Tskhinvali. I won’t believe it until I see it - or at least until Saakashvili’s statement is confirmed. I seriously doubt that the Georgian military, how ever US-trained and equipped it might be, was able to secure Tskhinvali, unless the Russian troops deliberately retreated to the north. In the latter case, a protracted conflict may ensue, since it will be much more difficult for Georgia to penetrate north of Tskhinvali.

And, finally, what seems to be a piece of good news after a very hectic day. AFP says that the EU and the US are to send a joint delegation to South Ossetia, to negotiate the terms of a ceasefire. The two sides will be represented by a high level US official [the identity of whom has not been confirmed], and by her counterpart in Quai d’Orsay [as France is currently holding the EU presidency].

This latter piece of news might actually be a first step toward a more active involement of the West in Georgia, and towards involving a multilateral framework into the resolution of the conflict.

More about that later. In the meantime, enjoy your Friday evening

As I was replaying, in my head, the film of events from last night, in Ossetia, something struck me. Take two situations:

a. Ossetian separatists fire on two georgian villages. The Georgian military responds by launching a large-scale military operation, essentially aimed at taking control over the entire South Ossetian territory.

b. Rockets are fired from the Ghaza strip into Israeli border towns. The Israeli Defense Forces [IDF] respond by launching a large-scale military operation, aimed at taking control over the territory.

Both examples show a similar approach: large-scale operations following rebel/terrorist attacks. Dispoportionate, one might say. Without attempting to make value judgments, I cannot help but notice one important variable that is missing in the second example, but painfully present in the first: i.e., Russia.

Two questions emerge: Is Georgia deliberately following the Israeli strategy in its recent approach to the frozen conflicts? How wise is Georgia’s approach considering Russia’s involvement?

1. ‘The Messenger’ [an English-language daily in Tbilisi] has a blog with almost-real-time updates on developments in Ossetia. Worth checking, especially since the editors are on the scene in Tbilisi.

2. Wu Wei aks herself ‘Who is picking the fights?‘