Dateline: BUCHAREST

This morning I woke up to news of war in Ossetia. Conflict had been brewing there for a while now - in May, a war involving Russia and Georgia seemed all but inevitable. Now, shots are being fired, apparently Georgian troops are deployed inside Ossetia and Russia is already actively involved. What a way to mark the opening of the Olympics!

The facts. During the recent days, Georgia has been trying to push a peace solution to the South Ossetian conflict, but met with Tskhinvali’s defiance. Talks, scheduled for yesterday, never happened. Instead, last night conflict erupted. Georgians allege that their military responded to attacks on Georgian villages by Ossetian fighters. Regardless of whether in response to a provocation or an intentional display of force, Georgian troops entered Ossetia last night, launching a large-scale military offensive and engaging in serious fighting, leaving 15 dead, including, according to several reports, civilians, and leaving 3 Russians wounded. Other reports [cited by Reuters] state that several Russian peacekeepers have now been killed by Georgian artillery.

Russia’s response. Russia vowed to defend its citizens and, this morning, launched airborne attacks on several targets in Georgia, including [presumably a military base in] Gori. Of course, Moscow accuses Georgia of breaking the ceasefire and engaging in aggression. Also, in a recent statement, the Speaker of the Russian Parliament has reaffirmed Moscow’s intention of defending its citizens in South Ossetia. Also, from Beijing, Russian PM Putin calls Georgia’s acts ‘an aggression’ and threatens that they will not be left unchecked.

Georgia’s statements. Saakashvili has called for a general mobilization of Georgian population. In a televized address this morning, he said that part of S. Ossetia ‘has been freed’, with other official reports saying that Tbilisi is now in control over 8 towns in South Ossetia.

International reactions. So far, I haven’t heard of any official reactions to this on the international scene. Most leaders are in Beijing for the Olympics, where there has been a brief meeting between Putin and Bush. The UN Security Council has failed to reach a common statement on the conflict. Just in: President Bush is now calling for an immediate end to the conflict.

Possible future developments. The conflict looks likely to escalate, with both Georgia and Russia officially committed to it. Moscow’s hawkish stance looks especially worrying. Other reports talk of hundreds of fighters from Abkhazia hurrying to support Ossetian rebels.

News coverage. Read this story on BBC for a good round-up of the events. Also, CNN offers a good overview of the situation, and here information is better organized for people who have little background on the area. For the Russian point of view, watch this Russia Today report. Finally, a news update on Bloomberg talks of Russian attacks on Georgia. Check out civil.ge for constant updates on the situation.

The events in Ossetia are unfolding at high speed, so it is very hard to catch up on all the developments. Feel free to leave any comment if I have missed anything. I will try to keep you updated as things happen on the ground, as well as give you my own take on this.

David Brunnstrom writes in today’s Guardian of the EU - Russia negotiations regarding a new all-encompassing pact wit the Big Eastern Neighbor. The deal would cover energy, trade, and politics. This pact is an opportunity for the EU to pursue a more assertive stance for Russia, and it is high time the 27 did that.

As Brunnstrom points out, it will be tough to get an agreement on the terms of the Treaty at the EU level - it may take years, if it ever happens. Yet the EU Member States should be aware, regardless of their reliance on Russian natural gas, that the only way to deal with Moscow now is by playing [sensible] hard ball. Of course, say, Germany, might have problems with that argument, yet its significance remains paramount over the long run.

Even the EU states that are highly dependent on Russian resources must have realized by now that, with oil prices reaching a whopping 130 USD/barrel, current consumption patterns are not sustainable. Yes, Russia has natural gas, but, over the long run, neither oil nor natural gas is the answer. The answer, in my humble opinion, lies in diversifying energy suppliers and shifting increasingly toward green forms of energy.

This is where a common approach toward Russia comes in handy. By taking a tougher line in its negotiations toward Moscow, Europe will surely incur some costs over the short term - possibly in the form of higher energy prices, possibly in yet oher forms. But to minimize these costs, and to stand a change of getting a better deal from the Russians, the EU must speak with one voice. If we consider the EU as a singular actor with a common interest, which i think should be the case, cooperating in their relationship with Russia would lead to a pareto-optimal result, maximizing the overall benefit for all Member States. It would allow the Union to get a better deal than any of the Member States alone could ever obtain.

And then there’s the politics. The message that needs to be driven home to Putin [or Medvedev, for that matter] is that it is not ok to infringe on human rights and reconstitute a neo-Tsarist crony regime controlled by the secret services. Russia should probably try harder to look like a democracy. And the EU should give it an incentive to do just that.

A third and final reason why the EU should act with one voice in its dealing with Mosow is because of the countries in Russia’s near-abroad. These states should retain a realistic prospect of one day joining the EU. And the EU should thus retain a powerful direct leverage on these countries’ reform path [as it ultimately did, even with the worst reformers, i.e. Romania and Bulgaria]. For an example of what I have in mind, see the initiative by Poland and Sweden, among others, for an Eastern Partnership.