Dateline: BUCHAREST

Below are a few pieces of analysis discussing the conflict in Georgia, from today’s newspapers. A nice break, I think, from the informational bombardment of news agencies.

The NY Times says this conflict has shown the US has little leverage on Russian actions. The Independent blames the West for encouraging Georgian adventurism and contributing to today’s catastrophe. UK’s the Telegraph claims that Russia’s attack on Georgia constitutes a return to the bad old days of Cold War diplomacy. Finally, from Turkey, Zaman, writes that the post-Soviet era of ‘geopolitical pluralism’ is now over.

In the past 48 hours I have heard a lot of whining from Romanians around me, trying to explain Bucharest’s lame response to the Georgian conflict [I am sorry I cannot give you an English version of the statement - the Presidency site does not have an English version]. Let’s look at the reasons why Romania came with a late, bland statement:

1. We are a small country, at the crossroads of civilizations, exposed to the whims of Great Powers.

2. We are dependent on Russian gas and oil and we will freeze our asses off in the winter if we piss off Russia.

3. We risk sharing the same fate as Georgia if we mess with the nasty Russians.

4. We are NATO members and we must have NATO’s sanctioning of our positions.

5. We are EU members and we cannot possibly speak out of turn, before our EU partners.

Enough.

Romanian diplomacy has missed a great opportunity to stand up for a friend and ally. Let’s compare it to Poland, Central and Eastern Europe’s largest country [the second being, err, Romania].

First, take a look at the Polish Presidency Website, and then at the Romanian Presidency Website.

Second, read the latest official statements by Polish officials: look here, here and here. [all published today]

Third, sit back, and take a moment what is the difference between Poland and Romania. I say it is a professional diplomatic service and a pair of balls.

[Thank you Milozs for the links].

21:06 UPDATE: The Presidents of Poland, Ukraine, and the three Baltic countries are travelling to Tbilisi, as a show of support for Georgia. I am most deeply impressed…

The Russian Ambassador to Latvia has warned Poland and the Baltic Countries that they may pay for their virulent criticisms of Russia, reports BNS. “One should not rush over such serious issues, lest important mistakes are committed, for which one will have to pay for a long time thereafter”, said Aleksandr Velchniakov, Russian Ambassador to Latvia.

Donald Tusk, Polish PM, issued an immediate response, calling Russia’s statement”irresponsible and aggressive”.

Italian diplomatic reactions following Russia’s invasion in Georgia so far have stood out within the UE. Earlier today, Italian FM Frattini said that Italy opposes the creation of a “European anti-Russian coalition”, adding that a EU condemnation of Russia would have negative effects for the whole of Europe.

In a later statement, Frattini said that Premier Berlusconi is exerting “moral pressure” over Putin, in an effort to end the conflict.

Of course, the story of Italy’s dependence on foreign oil and gas is well known. So is Italy’s general disinterest and awkwardness in matters of foreign affairs. But, in this case, to paraphrase Jacques Chirac’s infamous words, Italy “has missed a good opportunity to shut up.”

The NATO - Russia Council will convene tomorrow, at the request of Dmitri Rogozin, Russia’s Ambassador to NATO. The meeting will be held at ambassadorial level. [Source: AFP]

AFP, citing official Georgian government sources, say that Russian troops are now in control of Gori. Among confusing reports, the picture that emerges is the following: Russian troops have penetrated Georgian territory on two fronts [from Abkhazia and South Ossetia] and seem to be closing in on Tbilisi as the hours go by.

Worse, parts of the Georgian military seem to be left behind the front lines, in South Ossetia, and are now in danger of having of having supply lines cut by Russian forces. According to Georgian sources, all the troops are now regrouping around the capital Tbilisi. [Photo source: BBC]

Reports are quickly coming in that Russian troops have advanced more than 40km inside Georgia to the town of Senaki. The town is southeast of the border town of Zugdidi, which Russian troops also occupy now, and is important militarily as it is host to the second NATO standard base for the Georgian military. The second infantry of the Georgian army is stationed in Senaki. The first NATO standard base is in the town of Gori near the conflict in South Ossetia. It seems Russia wants to completely cripple the Georgian military before talking about ceasing the fighting. More details soon…

According to preliminary sources Russia has already rejected the draft ceasefire  proposal that was signed by President Saakashvili. Russia has accused Georgia of continuing to use military force against its forces and has therefore rejected the pretext for any ceasefire at this point in time. Click here for more details on the ongoing efforts by the the EU delegation headed by French FM Kouchner to secure a ceasefire and end the hostilities.

According to unconfirmed Georgian sources, Russian troops are now in control of the West Georgian town of Zugdidi, close to the Abkhazian border. Will be back with updates on this.

1750 [Tbilisi time]: Civil.ge confirms that Russian troops are now in control of Zugdidi! A representative of the Georgian Interior Ministry was quoted as saying:

The so called Russian peacekeeping forces [stationed in the conflict zone], as well as Russia’s regular army units entered into Zugdidi and they now control the local police headquarters.