Dateline: BUCHAREST

Now that the Russian-Georgian conflict is nearing its end, it is time to start taking a step back and ponder the true dimensions of the conflict, its causes and long term consequences. But to do that, we should first escape the simplistic approach to the conflict that was prevalent all over Western media.

The view that Russia was the aggressor, the bad guy in this conflict, was the main take of Western news sources. Reports of indiscriminate violence and acts of aggression committed by the Russian troops triggered a similar approach by this blog.

Now it’s time to balance this view. First, we provided you with a number of articles taken from the Russian press, and showing how the conflict was viewed frm Moscow. Next on the list  this article from eXiled, republished from The Nation. The article takes a far more critical view of Saakashvili’s regime then has been the norm in Western media [with regard to the recent conflict], and points to some critical tensions that lie at the hear of the Russo-Georgian conflict:

• Does Georgia fit the paradigm of a small democratic nation, given Misha’s authoritarian tendences?
• How does West choose its side, when confronted with the self-determination / national sovereignty dichotomy?
• How much is America willing to risk in order to secure Georgia?

All this from a leftist American perspective. Regardless of whether you agree with the argument, the article is worth reading.

Saakashvili announced today Georgia’s withdrawal from the Commonwealth of Independent States, in protest of Russia’s aggression. The Georgian President has called the Russian troops “occupational forces.”

“We have decided to quit CIS and to say farewell to the Soviet Union. We call on Ukraine and other members to also quit the CIS ruled by Russia.”

“We have also decided to renounce the Russian peacekeepers’ mandate and to declare Abkhazia and South Ossetia occupied territories of Georgia.”

Saakashvili’s decision is significant as Russian troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia had been deployed there under a CIS peace-keeping mandate. Georgia’s announcement may leave the formal legitimacy of the peace-keeping mission under question. During the ensuing negotiations, a new framework for the peace-keeping troops will probably have to be negotiated.

Lavrov acknowledged, in a press conference today, he had told Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Saakashvili must stand down. He said that Moscow was not actively seeking to overthrow him, but that the situation would improve greatly if Saakashvili left.

At a joint press conference with Finnish counterpart, Lavrov said: “Saakashvili cannot be a partner and must stand down.” “Saakashvili’s brutal actions undermined Georgia’s confidence. We do not feel any confidence to Saakashvili,” Lavrov said.

We are seeing a Russia frustrated over the fact that the West did not allow it to overthrow Saakashvili. What may happen is that Russia will try to negotiate a deal with the West that include a regime change. Will the West sacrifice Georgia?

Russian troops have taken control of the major highway passing through Gori, and “split the country’s western part with the east”, declared Saakashvili some 30 minutes ago, quoted by Civil Georgia . Here are other excerpts from Saakashvili desperate’s speech:

Situation is extremely grave. This is occupation attempt, attempt to totally occupy Georgia, attempt to destroy Georgia.”

Russia goal is to put an end to existence of the Georgian state.

We are receiving only moral and humanitarian help from the international community, but we need more than that. We want them to stop this barbaric aggressor.

Georgians are now bracing for an all-out attack by Russia on Tbilisi, with the aim of forcing President Saakashvili to step down.

[Georgian woman in Gori. Source: AP]

This morning I was woken up by a text message from Tbilisi: “Last night Tbilisi bombed! Aeroport and some places!” The information was later confirmed by other people in Tbilisi, who reported waking up to massive explosions, at 4:30.

During the past few hours, Russia has seemed to ease the pressure on Georgia - for now at a declaratory level. Medvedev declared to Interfax that military operations in Georgia are almost complete. Russian statements seem to indicate that Moscow is willing to end major operations following the securing of the South Ossetian territory. Yet, bombing of Georgian targets has continued. President Saakashvili had to interrupt an interview to flee to a bomb shelter, among aerial raids on Tbilisi.

The situation in Ossetia is still chaotic. Reports seem to indicate that, after heavy fighting last night, Georgian troops have been able to push back Russian forces that were closing in on Gori. Earlier today, an Ossetian source said Georgians had resumed offensive inside South Ossetia. If confirmed, this could mean that Russians have been forced to retreat north of the Ossetian boundary and are being pursued by Georgian forces.

Here is a video about Russian bombings on Tbilisi.

According to Romanian TV channel Realitatea, Saakashvili and French FM Bernard Kouchner had to be evacuated from Gori amid heavy Russian artillery fire. Watch the video here.

Adi reports, citing reuters, that Georgian troops are now in complete control of Tskhinvali. I won’t believe it until I see it - or at least until Saakashvili’s statement is confirmed. I seriously doubt that the Georgian military, how ever US-trained and equipped it might be, was able to secure Tskhinvali, unless the Russian troops deliberately retreated to the north. In the latter case, a protracted conflict may ensue, since it will be much more difficult for Georgia to penetrate north of Tskhinvali.

And, finally, what seems to be a piece of good news after a very hectic day. AFP says that the EU and the US are to send a joint delegation to South Ossetia, to negotiate the terms of a ceasefire. The two sides will be represented by a high level US official [the identity of whom has not been confirmed], and by her counterpart in Quai d’Orsay [as France is currently holding the EU presidency].

This latter piece of news might actually be a first step toward a more active involement of the West in Georgia, and towards involving a multilateral framework into the resolution of the conflict.

More about that later. In the meantime, enjoy your Friday evening

Via Stratfor:

Updates will be made as more information becomes available. All times are local Georgian time.

Aug. 7, 10:30 p.m.: South Ossetia breaks a cease-fire agreement with Georgia, according to the secretary of the Georgian National Security Council, Kakha Lomaia. Lomaia said the “separatists opened fire at the two Georgian villages of Prisi and Tamarasheni.”
Approximately 11:55 p.m.: An aide to the commander of Russia’s peacekeeping forces tells Interfax in an interview that South Ossetia’s capital city, Tskhinvali, is being shelled from GRAD-type multiple rocket launchers.
Aug. 8, midnight: A defense ministry official from Georgia says that Georgia has decided to “restore constitutional order to the entire region” of South Ossetia. Continue Reading »

This morning I woke up to news of war in Ossetia. Conflict had been brewing there for a while now - in May, a war involving Russia and Georgia seemed all but inevitable. Now, shots are being fired, apparently Georgian troops are deployed inside Ossetia and Russia is already actively involved. What a way to mark the opening of the Olympics!

The facts. During the recent days, Georgia has been trying to push a peace solution to the South Ossetian conflict, but met with Tskhinvali’s defiance. Talks, scheduled for yesterday, never happened. Instead, last night conflict erupted. Georgians allege that their military responded to attacks on Georgian villages by Ossetian fighters. Regardless of whether in response to a provocation or an intentional display of force, Georgian troops entered Ossetia last night, launching a large-scale military offensive and engaging in serious fighting, leaving 15 dead, including, according to several reports, civilians, and leaving 3 Russians wounded. Other reports [cited by Reuters] state that several Russian peacekeepers have now been killed by Georgian artillery.

Russia’s response. Russia vowed to defend its citizens and, this morning, launched airborne attacks on several targets in Georgia, including [presumably a military base in] Gori. Of course, Moscow accuses Georgia of breaking the ceasefire and engaging in aggression. Also, in a recent statement, the Speaker of the Russian Parliament has reaffirmed Moscow’s intention of defending its citizens in South Ossetia. Also, from Beijing, Russian PM Putin calls Georgia’s acts ‘an aggression’ and threatens that they will not be left unchecked.

Georgia’s statements. Saakashvili has called for a general mobilization of Georgian population. In a televized address this morning, he said that part of S. Ossetia ‘has been freed’, with other official reports saying that Tbilisi is now in control over 8 towns in South Ossetia.

International reactions. So far, I haven’t heard of any official reactions to this on the international scene. Most leaders are in Beijing for the Olympics, where there has been a brief meeting between Putin and Bush. The UN Security Council has failed to reach a common statement on the conflict. Just in: President Bush is now calling for an immediate end to the conflict.

Possible future developments. The conflict looks likely to escalate, with both Georgia and Russia officially committed to it. Moscow’s hawkish stance looks especially worrying. Other reports talk of hundreds of fighters from Abkhazia hurrying to support Ossetian rebels.

News coverage. Read this story on BBC for a good round-up of the events. Also, CNN offers a good overview of the situation, and here information is better organized for people who have little background on the area. For the Russian point of view, watch this Russia Today report. Finally, a news update on Bloomberg talks of Russian attacks on Georgia. Check out civil.ge for constant updates on the situation.

The events in Ossetia are unfolding at high speed, so it is very hard to catch up on all the developments. Feel free to leave any comment if I have missed anything. I will try to keep you updated as things happen on the ground, as well as give you my own take on this.

Alex from the Messenger [Tbilisi's English language daily] has been liveblogging throughout election day in Georgia. FYI, I am talking about Parliamentary elections, contested by 9 parties and 3 electoral blocks.

The big issue at stake here is actually having the elections generally regarded as free and fair by the international community. That would be a big plus in terms of strengthening Georgia’s democratic credentials and helping it to secure the NATO Membership Action Plan in December.

The small issue here is whether Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) is able to hold on to a Parliamentary majority. The opposition is made up of largely Pro-Western parties, who are quite vocal against Saakashvili’s strong style of leadership [authoritarian might be another way to put it].

Anyway, the quick facts here [too tired to give you any fine print now]:
_ turnout: 55%
_ exit poll: UNM at 63%
_ opposition cry foul.

I will keep you updated with any major developments. In case I forget or I don’t have time, just check the Messenger’s blog.

PP: did you see the story about the rumoured agreement between Tbilisi and Sokhumi?
SB1: no!
tell me
PP: it was in the kommersant yesterday or today supposedly the deal is a non-use of force agreement and paves the way for the return of georgian refugees in exchange for withdrawal from kodori gorge
SB1: really? but is that really feasible - i mean, would they return? i know there was a un resolution about it
PP: no idea really
i doubt it seriously
SB1: ok
and what’s next?
and why now? Continue Reading »