Dateline: BUCHAREST

President Saakashvili has ordered Georgian troops to withdraw from Tskhinvali, and called for a unilateral ceasefire. As could be predicted, the 18,000-strong Georgian military cannot be a match for the Russian military aggression. The whole story, here.

Saakashvili gambled, was tricked by Moscow, and is about to lose. It is now up to the West to save it.

Adi reports, citing reuters, that Georgian troops are now in complete control of Tskhinvali. I won’t believe it until I see it - or at least until Saakashvili’s statement is confirmed. I seriously doubt that the Georgian military, how ever US-trained and equipped it might be, was able to secure Tskhinvali, unless the Russian troops deliberately retreated to the north. In the latter case, a protracted conflict may ensue, since it will be much more difficult for Georgia to penetrate north of Tskhinvali.

And, finally, what seems to be a piece of good news after a very hectic day. AFP says that the EU and the US are to send a joint delegation to South Ossetia, to negotiate the terms of a ceasefire. The two sides will be represented by a high level US official [the identity of whom has not been confirmed], and by her counterpart in Quai d’Orsay [as France is currently holding the EU presidency].

This latter piece of news might actually be a first step toward a more active involement of the West in Georgia, and towards involving a multilateral framework into the resolution of the conflict.

More about that later. In the meantime, enjoy your Friday evening

An eyewitness report by the Messenger says gunshots are heard in Tskhinvali, and at least seven buildings are on fire. In the meantime, Tbilisi calls for a moratorium until 1800.

Saakashvili, in an interview this afternoon, has said:

We have mobilised tens of thousands of reservists, this is continuing and it is important for the motherland at such an important moment when the future of the motherland is being decided. Everyone should arm themselves and not be afraid.

According to Reuters, Lithuania is sending its FM to Georgia in a ‘fact-finding mission’, in an unprecedented show of support for Tbilisi by a NATO and EU-member state. Apparently, the Lithuanian FM is to act as an official information source for EU states.

In the meantime, there are contradictory reports from Tskhinvali, with the Georgian Interior Ministry declaring that Georgia is now in control of the Ossetian capital, while other sources say that Russian tanks have now reached Tskhinvali.

Ossetia, and with it, Georgia, is slowly descending into chaos.

Via Stratfor:

Updates will be made as more information becomes available. All times are local Georgian time.

Aug. 7, 10:30 p.m.: South Ossetia breaks a cease-fire agreement with Georgia, according to the secretary of the Georgian National Security Council, Kakha Lomaia. Lomaia said the “separatists opened fire at the two Georgian villages of Prisi and Tamarasheni.”
Approximately 11:55 p.m.: An aide to the commander of Russia’s peacekeeping forces tells Interfax in an interview that South Ossetia’s capital city, Tskhinvali, is being shelled from GRAD-type multiple rocket launchers.
Aug. 8, midnight: A defense ministry official from Georgia says that Georgia has decided to “restore constitutional order to the entire region” of South Ossetia. Continue Reading »

This morning I woke up to news of war in Ossetia. Conflict had been brewing there for a while now - in May, a war involving Russia and Georgia seemed all but inevitable. Now, shots are being fired, apparently Georgian troops are deployed inside Ossetia and Russia is already actively involved. What a way to mark the opening of the Olympics!

The facts. During the recent days, Georgia has been trying to push a peace solution to the South Ossetian conflict, but met with Tskhinvali’s defiance. Talks, scheduled for yesterday, never happened. Instead, last night conflict erupted. Georgians allege that their military responded to attacks on Georgian villages by Ossetian fighters. Regardless of whether in response to a provocation or an intentional display of force, Georgian troops entered Ossetia last night, launching a large-scale military offensive and engaging in serious fighting, leaving 15 dead, including, according to several reports, civilians, and leaving 3 Russians wounded. Other reports [cited by Reuters] state that several Russian peacekeepers have now been killed by Georgian artillery.

Russia’s response. Russia vowed to defend its citizens and, this morning, launched airborne attacks on several targets in Georgia, including [presumably a military base in] Gori. Of course, Moscow accuses Georgia of breaking the ceasefire and engaging in aggression. Also, in a recent statement, the Speaker of the Russian Parliament has reaffirmed Moscow’s intention of defending its citizens in South Ossetia. Also, from Beijing, Russian PM Putin calls Georgia’s acts ‘an aggression’ and threatens that they will not be left unchecked.

Georgia’s statements. Saakashvili has called for a general mobilization of Georgian population. In a televized address this morning, he said that part of S. Ossetia ‘has been freed’, with other official reports saying that Tbilisi is now in control over 8 towns in South Ossetia.

International reactions. So far, I haven’t heard of any official reactions to this on the international scene. Most leaders are in Beijing for the Olympics, where there has been a brief meeting between Putin and Bush. The UN Security Council has failed to reach a common statement on the conflict. Just in: President Bush is now calling for an immediate end to the conflict.

Possible future developments. The conflict looks likely to escalate, with both Georgia and Russia officially committed to it. Moscow’s hawkish stance looks especially worrying. Other reports talk of hundreds of fighters from Abkhazia hurrying to support Ossetian rebels.

News coverage. Read this story on BBC for a good round-up of the events. Also, CNN offers a good overview of the situation, and here information is better organized for people who have little background on the area. For the Russian point of view, watch this Russia Today report. Finally, a news update on Bloomberg talks of Russian attacks on Georgia. Check out civil.ge for constant updates on the situation.

The events in Ossetia are unfolding at high speed, so it is very hard to catch up on all the developments. Feel free to leave any comment if I have missed anything. I will try to keep you updated as things happen on the ground, as well as give you my own take on this.

I came across this blog entry [Romanian only] about South Ossetia. It tells the author’s [who happens to be an expert on frozen conflicts] impressions during a visit to Tskhinvali, Kurta, and Georgian villages. It ends with a dinner with Misha Saakashvili. Well worth the read!